Elena Rybakina continues to close in on Aryna Sabalenka’s No. 1 ranking after Stuttgart title

It’s been a while since we’ve even had to talk about No. 1 scenarios on the women’s side, as Aryna Sabalenka has been so far ahead of the rest of the pack for such a long time.

But now a legitimate threat has emerged, and we could be back to calculating No. 1 scenarios as early as Rome in a few weeks.

By winning Stuttgart last week, world No. 2 Elena Rybakina cut the gap between herself and Sabalenka from 2,917 points (11,025 to 8,108) to 2,395 points (10,895 to 8,500), not just because she added points by winning the title, but because Sabalenka lost points for missing the event, having reached the final last year.

That 2,395-point gap is the closest anyone’s gotten to Sabalenka since the very first week of the 2026 season, when she led then-No. 2 Iga Swiatek by 2,312 points (10,490 to 8,178).

Though the Kazakh can’t take the top spot in Madrid, depending on how the tournament plays out, she can close in by a lot.

That’s because Sabalenka’s defending 1,000 points in Madrid for winning the WTA 1000 event last year, while Rybakina’s only defending 65 points, having fallen in the third round a year ago.

In the most extreme scenario in Madrid—Sabalenka losing her opening match and Rybakina going on to win the title—that would shred the gap to just 470 points, with Sabalenka going from 10,895 to 9,905 and Rybakina going from 8,500 to 9,435.

That extreme scenario is possible, but extremely unlikely—not on Rybakina’s part, as she’s clearly one of the favorites for the title, but more so on Sabalenka’s part, as she’s not only won Madrid three times (and in three of the last five years, no less) but she hasn’t lost before the quarterfinals of any event since last February (or before the final of any event since last October).

After Madrid, things get a little more complicated.

During the rest of the clay-court season last year, Sabalenka earned 1,515 points (215 for reaching the quarterfinals in Rome and 1,300 for reaching the final of Roland Garros) while Rybakina only earned 805 points (65 for a third round in Rome, 500 for winning Strasbourg and 240 for a fourth round at Roland Garros).

Long story short, what happens in Madrid over the next two weeks can’t change who’s No. 1, but it will set the tone for the battle for No. 1 on the WTA rankings during rest of the clay-court season.

Stay tuned to Tennis.com for all the latest in that battle!