Fritz vs. Alcaraz, Djokovic vs. Sinner: Wimbledon Men's Semifinals Betting Preview

On Friday, July 11, we're going to get an incredible set of semifinals at Wimbledon. It doesn't get much better than Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner, but don't be surprised if Taylor Fritz and Carlos Alcaraz steal the show.

Regardless, we'll all be tuned in, so why not put a little skin in the game?

Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz

I love watching Alcaraz and think he’s great for the sport. Still, his inconsistency makes it tough to back him confidently. Even when he wins, he often drops sets—which is why I usually lean toward Overs, or fade him altogether. So far this year, Alcaraz is just 23-29 against the spread, with the Over hitting in 29 of 52 tracked matches at Tennislytics.

That leads me to this: I’m playing Over 3.5 sets in his semifinal against Fritz. I’ve taken this bet in all five of Fritz’s matches, and it’s cashed every time except one—which ended in a push, due to Jordan Thompson’s retirement.

Fritz is second on tour in hold percentage over the last year and has been serving lights-out on grass. He’s also made real improvements on return, especially on the forehand side. If Alcaraz isn’t sharp with his serve—and he hasn’t been for most of the tournament—Fritz can take advantage. The American isn’t just a big server anymore; he can rally and defend. I think Alcaraz wins, but this one should be competitive.

Pick: Over 3.5 Sets (-139)

Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner

I won’t have a bet on this one—I’ve already got futures on both Djokovic (+650) and Sinner (+460) to win the tournament. I’m just hoping whoever wins this match is fresh heading into the final. That said, I do have a slight lean on how things might play out.

My favorite play is Over 0.5 tiebreaks. These two have played at least one in five of their last seven meetings, including their Roland Garros semifinal. Even with Djokovic’s elite return game, breaking Sinner hasn’t come easy—he only did it once in Paris last month, on slow clay. On grass, it should be even harder.

Both players will be focused on finding quick points. Sinner needs to protect his elbow, and Djokovic, at 38 years old, simply can’t grind through rallies like he used to. Given that—plus Novak’s late-match fall in the quarters—the tiebreak prop at -140 feels like the sharpest look.

If you want more traditional action, I’d consider Over 38.5 games or Over 3.5 sets. This should be tight throughout. The oddsmakers clearly think so, as Sinner was -450 at Roland Garros and he’s only -215 here.

Pick: Over 0.5 Tiebreakers (-140)