On Friday, July 11, we're going to get an incredible set of semifinals at Wimbledon. It doesn't get much better than Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner, but don't be surprised if Taylor Fritz and Carlos Alcaraz steal the show.
Regardless, we'll all be tuned in, so why not put a little skin in the game?
Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz
I love watching Alcaraz and think he’s great for the sport. Still, his inconsistency makes it tough to back him confidently. Even when he wins, he often drops sets—which is why I usually lean toward Overs, or fade him altogether. So far this year, Alcaraz is just 23-29 against the spread, with the Over hitting in 29 of 52 tracked matches at Tennislytics.
That leads me to this: I’m playing Over 3.5 sets in his semifinal against Fritz. I’ve taken this bet in all five of Fritz’s matches, and it’s cashed every time except one—which ended in a push, due to Jordan Thompson’s retirement.
Fritz is second on tour in hold percentage over the last year and has been serving lights-out on grass. He’s also made real improvements on return, especially on the forehand side. If Alcaraz isn’t sharp with his serve—and he hasn’t been for most of the tournament—Fritz can take advantage. The American isn’t just a big server anymore; he can rally and defend. I think Alcaraz wins, but this one should be competitive.
Pick: Over 3.5 Sets (-139)