'If I think about everything he has done in tennis, I couldn’t play,' Carlos Alcaraz says of facing Novak Djokovic in Melbourne

“This is not the right player to play in a quarterfinal, I guess,” Carlos Alcaraz said with a smile when he was asked about facing Novak Djokovic in his next match at the Australian Open.

Whether it’s right or wrong, it will be a new experience for both men. The Serb and the Spaniard have played seven matches, four of them in finals, three of them in semifinals, and almost all of them really good.

Instead of competing for a gold medal, the way they did last summer, or a Wimbledon title, the way they did in 2023 and 2024, Alcaraz and Djokovic will be playing simply to reach a Grand Slam semifinal, with more work to go from there.

Does that fact favor one man or the other? My first instinct is that it’s good news for Alcaraz, because Djokovic has so much more experience winning major finals. Yet in the three times they’ve played in non-finals, Djokovic has won twice. The last time they faced off in something other than a title match, at the ATP Finals in late 2023, Djokovic won 6-3, 6-2.

Of course, it may not matter at all. As Alcaraz says, a Grand Slam quarterfinal is still a big deal. At that stage, anyone you see on the other side of the net is going to be either (a) a high seed, or (b) an opponent on a hot streak.

“In a Grand Slam, from the quarterfinals to the finals, those players are the best in the world,” Alcaraz said on Sunday. “If it wasn’t Djokovic in the quarterfinals, it could be other players in the top ranking.”

Alcaraz may also be helped by the fact that there won’t be any immediate history on the line here. If this match were a final, Djokovic would be going for a record 25th major title. That might be bring him extra motivation, without doing the same for Alcaraz. As it is, Alcaraz can treat this like another contest among many.

As he says, “If I think about everything [Djokovic] has done in tennis, I couldn’t play.”

The headline, and the bottom line, isn’t the round we’re in. It’s the matchup we’re going to see. In my opinion, Djokovic and Alcaraz have played the Match of the Year in each of the last three seasons, and established themselves as the best rivalry of the post-Big 3 era so far. That’s a testament to the electricity that Alcaraz brings to a court at 21—yes, he’s still just 21—and the conditioning and hunger that Djokovic still brings at 37.

Typically, champions of different eras are like two massive ships passing rapidly in the night: Rod Laver and Bjorn Borg in the mid-70s; Pete Sampras and Roger Federer in the early 2000s. But Djokovic’s longevity has made his battles with Alcaraz battles something more.

So who should be favored in Nolitos VIII?

I can win against any opponent when I’m feeling my best. Novak Djokovic

Form-wise, they come in on roughly equal terms. Alcaraz has lost one set, to Nuno Borges, in four matches, and has mostly avoided his traditional mid-match dips and lulls. Djokovic dropped a set in each of his first two rounds, but has tightened things up in his last two matches, against two strong Czech opponents, Tomas Machac and Jiri Lehecka. The fact that Djokovic has improved over the four matches, and beat two potentially dangerous opponents in straight sets, would seem to bode well for him.

He thinks so, anyway. After a season in which he didn’t win anything outside of the Olympics, Djokovic isn’t taking anything, or any victory, for granted. He seemed to need a confidence boost coming into this quarterfinal, and he got one.

“The last two matches have been a really high level,” Djokovic says. “A great matchup for me prior to Alcaraz. I’m really glad to be able to beat Machac and Lehecka in straight sets. I can win against any opponent when I’m feeling my best.”

Djokovic and Alcaraz have played twice on hard courts, once indoors in Turin and once outdoors in Cincinnati. Djokovic won both times, but he had to save match points to do it in Cincy in the summer of 2023. And we’re all aware of how much he loves this particular hard court. A win over Alcaraz would be his 99th for his career at the Australian Open against just nine defeats.

I think we know what we’ll get from Alcaraz; with the exception of last year’s US Open, which came in the wake of his Olympic effort, he has become a consistent performer at the majors. He won’t be perfect, he’ll have his highs and lows, but he’ll be fit, and he shouldn’t be overly nervous. Which means the result may depend on Djokovic—specifically, his motivation level, and his ability to stay with Alcaraz over best-of-five.

In 2024, Djokovic, for a variety of reasons both physical and emotional, couldn’t win a Slam. His two younger rivals, Jannik Sinnner and Alcaraz, handled him comfortably at the Australian Open and Wimbledon, respectively. He was able to prevail over Alcaraz in the Olympic final in part because he wanted that victory as much as he’s wanted anything in his career, and because he knew he wouldn’t have to go five sets to do it. Djokovic threw everything he had into every point, and it worked.

“I’m expecting a big battle as is the case in most of our matches,” Djokovic says. “The kind of matches we play remind me of my matches with Nadal in terms of the intensity and the energy on the court. He’s very dynamic and explosive player. I look forward to it. I think we both are hitting the ball pretty well.”

Can Djokovic still maintain that kind of intensity and energy for that long? Can he reproduce his Olympian effort in a quarterfinal, at an event he has already won 11 times, over a best-of-five-set match? It’s possible, which by itself is a testament to Djokovic’s continued excellence at 37. But recent Slam history says the younger man is the safer bet. Winner: Alcaraz