Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka: What their Rome final could mean for their rivalry

When does a “matchup” turn into a “rivalry”?

Roman numerals can be a sign. If fans and media start assigning Xs and Vs to a pair of players’ matches, Super Bowl-style, you know it’s important, and possibly historic.

I haven’t seen any of those numbers next to a Swiatek-Sabalenka match so far. Maybe that’s because they haven’t met in a Grand Slam final. Or maybe it’s because Swiatek has a fairly one-sided edge in their head-to-head, 7-3. Or maybe it’s because, for two players who have been ranked No. 1 and 2 since 2022, they haven’t faced each other all that many times during that span. These are the two best players of their mini-era, but their rivalry hasn’t been era-defining yet.

That may be about to change. Swiatek and Sabalenka staged their most dramatic match to date in the Madrid final last month, a three-hour epic in which Sabalenka had three match points, but Swiatek ultimately won in a third-set tiebreaker, 9-7. Now, just two weeks later, they’ll square off again, on the same surface, with pole position at Roland Garros up for grabs.

This is how two of this century’s era-defining rivalries—Rafael Nadal vs. Roger Federer, and Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic—got started close to 20 years ago. If Swiatek and Sabalenka can stage another thriller—or just a competitive, well-played final—they might make themselves into the biggest story in tennis heading to Paris.

But first things first: Who is more likely to win on Saturday? Here’s a breakdown of some of the match’s key elements.

Serve

Sabalenka can win more free points with hers, but double-faults at tense moments are always a possibility. Swiatek uses her swinging wide serve in the deuce court well against Sabalenka, but her second serve can still be pummeled.

Return

Sabalenka should be an intimidating presence on Swiatek’s second serves. But in Madrid it was Swiatek’s backhand return on second serves that earned her an early lead, and helped keep her in it late. We’ll see if Sabalenka can find a way around that shot this time.

Ground Strokes

Much like the serve, Sabalenka has more raw power from both sides, but Swiatek, unless she’s having an off day, is generally more consistent and controlled over the course of a match. Swiatek may be happier with the slower conditions in Rome; they give Sabalenka fewer chances to rush her.

Form

As in Madrid, Swiatek comes into the final having not dropped a set, while Sabalenka comes in having played two three-setters, and having survived by the skin of her teeth, 9-7 in a third-set tiebreaker, against Elina Svitolina. Sabalenka was helped by having a rest day between matches in Madrid, and that has been even more true in Rome. Her back was hurting during the Svitolina match, and she contemplated pulling out. But, as she said, “Lucky me, I had an extra day,” which she used to recover.

All of which is to say that their relative form over the past 10 days shouldn’t matter on Saturday.

Mental Edge

Sabalenka said her loss to Swiatek in Madrid “hurt me a lot,” so she should be determined not to feel that way again. She says if she has a match point this time, she’ll “just go for it.” This will also be her first chance at a title in Rome.

Swiatek sounded relaxed about her game after her win over Coco Gauff in the semifinals. She has been in control of all of her matches, and this will be her first chance to win a Madrid-Rome double. She’ll also want to maintain any edge she can get over Sabalenka going to Paris.

In the end, the slower surface and Swiatek’s hot streak may be the keys to this one. If she can escape Sabalenka on the faster courts in Madrid, I’ll pick her to do it in Swiatek-Sabalenka XI, too.

Winner: Swiatek