Iga Swiatek and Hubert Hurkacz—future finalists?—get their next Wimbledon tests

Iga Swiatek v. Petra Martic

“Can Swiatek carry her momentum to a new surface, and across the English Channel, for the first time?” That’s the question I asked at the start of the week—everything else about the women’s tournament depends on that question.

Judging by her body language in her sometimes-tight first-round win over Sofia Kenin, Swiatek is more determined to make it happen than ever. Just as important, her improved serve will give her a better chance. With a newly hitch-free motion, she fired six aces and won 84 percent of her first-serve points. The ability to bail herself out with her serve has been a missing ingredient in Swiatek's grass game in the past.

Will she need it against Martic on Centre Court on Thursday? Swiatek is 3-0 against the Croatian, and she beat her at Wimbledon a year ago, 6-2, 7-5. But Martic, with her good hands, backhand slices and court-covering legs, does have a game that’s built for grass. She’s been to the fourth round here three times, and will throw a few wrinkles Swiatek’s way. Winner: Swiatek

Hubert Hurkacz vs. Arthur Fils

No one, as far as I’m aware, has mentioned Hurkacz as a possible finalist, but the possibility does exist. His serve-based game thrives on grass, he has been a semifinalist here, he just made the final in Halle, and he’s in the same quarter as Novak Djokovic. That last fact wouldn’t normally work in his favor, but we know Djokovic did have a knee procedure as recently as three weeks ago. At 37, that’s not much recovery time, even for him.

Fils should be a worthy early test for Hurkacz. The 20-year-old Frenchman is ranked 34th and heading higher—he was voted the ATP’s Newcomer of the Year in 2023. While Fils has won just one match at Wimbledon in his career, his springy legs and heavy-topspin ground strokes should serve him well on grass.

The problem for now is, Hurkacz, with his high ace count and years of experience on this surface, may not give the youngster a whole lot of chances to show what he can do on the surface. Winner: Hurkacz

Jack Draper vs. Cam Norrie

It would have been more dramatic in a later round, but here it is, Wimbledon’s version of Succession. With Andy Murray making his swan song visit to Wimbledon, a battle between the two leading British successors seems appropriate.

Until recently, Norrie appeared to be the chosen one. The South African native worked his way into the Top 10, and made a Wimbledon semifinal two years ago. Draper, the flashy 22-year-old son of Roger Draper, former head of Great Britain’s tennis federation, had been a bit of a disappointment. But now those roles have been reversed. Norrie is down to No. 42 and has struggled to win a match of late. Draper is up to a career-high No. 28, and just won his first title, on grass, in Stuttgart.

👉 Betting Central: Which Brit is better to back?💰

Norrie is 2-0 against Draper. Both are lefties. Draper is taller, rangier, hits bigger and has more offensive options but Norrie has always been the steadier, grittier competitor. Is that still the case? We’ll see when they take No. 1 Court on Thursday. Winner: Draper

Bonus: The Murray boys take Centre Court

Last on Centre—teatime, generally, for the locals—was Murray’s traditional slot at Wimbledon. He’ll be there again in his final trip to the tournament, but this time with his brother, Jamie, by his side. They’ll take on two Aussies, John Peers and Rinky Hijikata, in what should be a warmly-received, highly elegiac first-rounder. Winner: Peers/Hijikata