Iga Swiatek vs. Jasmine Paolini: Where To Watch, Cincinnati Open Preview

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Estimated start time: 6:00 p.m. ET, Monday, August 18

“Tennis is a game of matchups,” we often hear. It’s not always true. Some players are just better than most or all of their opponents. But Swiatek vs. Paolini is one case in which the cliché is correct.

Swiatek is ranked No. 3 and Paolini is No. 9; they’ve met in a Grand Slam final; and for the past 15 months or so, they’ve both been consistent contenders at the important events. But their head-to-head has been entirely one-sided in Swiatek’s favor. She’s 5-0 against Paolini, and four of those matches—including the 2024 Roland Garros final—were blowouts.

“I never played a player that has this intensity before in my life,” Paolini said after losing to Iga 6-2, 6-1 in Paris. “So it was my first time facing a player that is taking time as much as she does, but also hitting winners and [is standing close to the baseline].

“I think she’s an unbelievable player.”

Paolini’s first problem is the obvious one. She’s 5-foot-4, which is not an optimal height when you’re facing the heavy, high-bouncing topspin that the 5-foot-9 Swiatek produces with her forehand, her serve, and even her two-handed backhand. Where Paolini’s topspin strokes tend to end up in Swiatek’s stroke zone, Iga’s force Paolini to either reach high, take the ball early, or back up. Swiatek also has an easier time attacking Paolini’s kick second serve, especially with her excellent backhand return.

When they met earlier this year on grass in Bad Homburg, Paolini tried to flatten out her strokes, crash the net, and take more risks. She made the points competitive, but only managed four games.

“Jasmine, well, she plays fast, but with a lot of spin, and she has a lot of variety in terms of going to the net as well,” Swiatek said after her semifinal win on Sunday.

That victory, over Elena Rybakina, was an impressive one. Swiatek says that she likes the challenge of facing Rybakina, because she has to lift her level to stay with her first-strike capabilities, and especially her serve. That’s what happened in their semifinal, as Iga erased a first-set deficit and improved game by game. This will be her first final in Cincinnati, a place where the courts have been too quick for her in the past.

“I think the surface was pretty crazy, and now it’s something that you can play tennis on,” Swiatek said of the Cincy courts. “So now it’s a bit slower, and it makes more sense. And yeah, also this year, I feel like I’m just progressing match by match. Past years I feel like the matches have been tough, like from the the beginning. So I just feel a bit different.”

If Paolini is going to hang her hat on anything coming into Sunday, it should probably be her one close defeat to Swiatek, last fall at the BJK Cup. The match was played on an indoor hard court, and Paolini won the first set 3-6, before falling 6-4, 6-4 in the last two. While Paolini couldn’t close it out, she was able to impose her will from the ground and at net for significant stretches.

The Italian was playing for her country in that match, and she would eventually lead the team to the title. Can she find that focus and motivation for herself? So far in this tournament, she has had it. Paolini edged Maria Sakkari in two tiebreakers in her opening round, came back from a set down to beat Coco Gauff in the quarters, and stopped Veronika Kudermetova’s momentum in the third set in the semis.

“That was the key: Forget, go back and fight, and stay in the present,” she says.

She’ll need all of her fighting, and possibly forgetting, skills against Swiatek. But with Paolini, who didn’t break through on tour until she was past 25, hope springs eternal.

“It’s been really tough against her,” she admitted of her record against Swiatek. “She’s defending well, serve is good.”

“We are in the final, I like the conditions here. Let’s fight, and hopefully it’s gonna be a good match.”

Winner: Swiatek