Is Andrey Rublev a title contender at Roland Garros?

PARIS—They don’t ask how, they ask how many. How many victories did Andrey Rublev, the highest-ranked player playing a first-on match on the first day of Roland Garros 2024, earn on Sunday?

The only satisfactory answer: One.

Yes, it took the sixth seed four sets, a duration that didn’t seem likely after he cruised past Taro Daniel in a 28-minute opener. But when the Russian’s 80^th-ranked adversary took the second set in a tiebreaker—and then broke serve to open the third—this seemingly streamlined first-rounder took an unexpected turn.

Compounding Rublev’s nuisance were the conditions. The sun and clouds took their turns enveloping Court Simonne-Mathieu, with some wind thrown in for good measure.

“Not easy to play in,” Rublev said of the inconstant day. “It’s tough.”

For Rublev’s sake, his infamous irritation never got the best of him. He regrouped, won six of the last eight games in the third set to regain the lead, and then pressured Daniel throughout the beginning of the fourth.

But Rublev had difficulty pulling away. He didn’t convert from 15-30 while returning at 3-2, and Daniel saved a break point with Rublev up 4-3. The crowd, a sizable one already, was growing in volume and intensity, yearning for a decider.

“I was really surprised, because I’ve played on this court many times,” said Rublev. “Normally, it was never full, but today it was quite a lot of people.”

First-on matches generally get strong crowds from the start—as do title contenders, which Rublev may be at this Roland Garros. Two of our experts picked Rublev to reach the final, and one of them even went a step further. The Madrid champion showed focus, firepower and even some finesse today, qualities that should serve him well during this fortnight.

But first, he had to battle—another prerequisite for Slam success.

Like a bug unable to be swatted away, Daniel held serve and nerve to 5-5. At 15-all, Rublev double faulted, then couldn’t handle a scorching service return.

It was an “equal” set, Rublev would later say on Tennis Channel, but at this moment he was trailing it, and was a few shots away from being made to play a fifth.

Then: Unreturned serve (focus), cross-court forehand winner (firepower), slice backhand that grazed the line (finesse), game.

A game later, Game, set, match.

“Of course, I feel a bit relieved that the match was over in four sets,” Rublev said. “But still I had a feeling during the match that was giving me some confidence.

“I had a feeling that I had a lot of break points in the second set. I had a lot of 15-30 second serves. I felt that almost every returning game I have chances. I don't know. Sometimes I wasn’t making them because I wanted to make them badly, or sometimes I wasn’t making them because maybe I was a bit relaxed.”

The way Rublev ended this match should inspire confidence in those backing him to go deep. A five-set first-rounder is often a prelude to an early exit, rather than grand achievement.

The key, Rublev told Steve Weissman and Prakash Amritraj, is not looking beyond what’s in front of him—something he’s had trouble doing.

“All the Slams, I’ve been thinking too much about upcoming matches, about draws, about who I have in my draws,” Rublev said. “…I’m tired of it.”

The 26-year-old began his day in the sun, and ended it in the rain. As Rublev walked from the press interview room to the Tennis Channel desk, the skies opened up without warning. The day’s forecast called for a less than 10 percent chance of showers.

TENNIS.com’s pre-match predictions gave Rublev a greater-than 90 percent chance of winning his first-rounder. Thankfully for him today, he only got a bit wet.