Will Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka regain their early-season momentum in Canada?

Tennis steps down from Mt. Olympus this week, and lands back on more familiar territory in Canada, at the National Bank Opens. Toronto and Montreal are the first 1000-level events since May, and the first of the North American summer season. But after the gold-medal match we just witnessed between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz at Roland Garros, and the emotion we saw spill out on those courts all week, it may take a few days for the tennis world to get into the hard-court swing.

This year the men are in Montreal and the women are in Toronto. The draws are out (women's here, men's here), and play begins a day later than usual, on Tuesday. Here are five things to look for up north.

1. Who hasn’t made it across the pond?

Anyone who watched the post-match reactions of Djokovic and Alcaraz on Sunday will understand that they aren’t going to be ready to get things going again on a different continent quite yet, even with the delayed start in Montreal. So we won’t see the Serb or the Spaniard this week.

The good news is that we will see top seed Jannik Sinner. After missing the Olympics with a case of tonsillitis, he’s back to defend the title he won last year in Toronto, one that jump-started his rise to No. 1 this season. Outside of Djokovic and Alcaraz, most of the other men who competed in the Olympics have made the trip, including No. 2 Alexander Zverev, No. 3 Daniil Medvedev, and bronze-medal winners Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul and Felix Auger-Aliassime.

There are a few more absences on the women’s side in Toronto. The three singles medalists, Zheng Qinwen, Donna Vekic and Iga Swiatek, have withdrawn, and so has doubles gold medalist and late-blooming superstar Jasmine Paolini. But Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka will be there to headline as the top two seeds.

2. Where have the last three major events—Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the Olympics—left us?

Tennis seasons are long, and players’ campaigns are full of peaks and valleys. We’re in a very different place, on both tours, than we were just before Roland Garros. Back then, Sinner was rising toward No. 1, and the rivalry between Swiatek and Sabalenka was at full boil. Three months later, it feels a little like we’re starting from scratch on both sides as we head toward the US Open.

Alcaraz won two straight Grand Slam titles, but his loss to Djokovic in Paris brings him back down to earth a bit. You wonder how quickly he’ll be able to put it behind him and find the motivation for U.S. hard courts. Djokovic has a gold medal, but he also has a shaky knee. Sinner, who won the Australian Open and was the best player through the first five months, will need to rebuild that momentum after coming up short at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

If anything, the landscape is even more flattened out on the WTA side. Sabalenka and Swiatek each had their high points in the first half—Aryna’s in Australia, Iga’s in Paris. Since then, though, Sabalenka has been injured and hasn’t won a title, Swiatek has taken a couple of tough, big-stage losses that will leave her with less of an aura of invincibility. In addition, Coco, now ranked No. 2, had an emotionally wrenching and medal-free Olympics.

As of today, the US Open seems like it’s up for grabs for any one of a dozen players who can brave the hot hard courts of August and get their games together in the next couple of weeks.

3. What do the top seeds’ draws look like?

Sinner is in the same quarter with Andrey Rublev, and the same half as Medvedev. Also nearby are Americans Paul and Frances Tiafoe, and Alejandro Tabilo, a Brazilian who is having a career year in 2024.

Zverev, the No. 2 seed, is in the same quarter with Casper Ruud, and could get an opening-round challenge from either Jordan Thompson or Jack Draper. Fritz, Holger Rune and Sebastian Korda, champion in D.C. this past week, are also in Zverev’s quarter.

Gauff is in a section with No. 6 Liudmila Samsonova, doubles silver medalist Diana Shnaider, and Naomi Osaka and Ons Jabeur—who meet in the first round.

Sabalenka, meanwhile, has Daria Kasatkina, Anna Kalinsakaya and Beatriz Haddad Maia in her quarter. Sabalenka lost early in Canada last year. This time her draw, and the depleted field, should give her a chance to go farther and reclaim some ranking points.

4. Who are the dark horses, and the first-round matches, to watch?

On the men’s side, you have to look at Korda, who won his first 500 tournament last week and played perhaps his best tennis of the season. He’ll start against Vasek Pospisil, and could play countryman Fritz after that.

Hubert Hurkacz, who hurt himself at Wimbledon and missed the Olympics for Poland, is back as the No. 4 seed. He made the final on these courts in 2022.

Among the women, Paula Badosa, like Korda, is coming off a title run in D.C. She could meet Jelena Ostapenko in the second round.

Bianca Andreescu, Toronto native and champion here in 2019, has shown some signs of progress this season. A quarterfinal with Sabalenka is possible.

And how about Emma Navarro? Can the Wimbledon quarterfinalist put her bitter Olympic defeat to eventual gold medalist Zheng Qinwen behind her? She could play Paris quarterfinalist Marta Kostyuk in the third round.

First-round matches to watch:

• Tiafoe vs. Tabilo
• Ben Shelton vs. Alexander Bublik
• Auger Aliassime vs. D.C. finalist Flavio Cobolli
• Alex Michelseon vs. Kei Nishikori
• Rune vs. Milos Raonic
• Draper vs. Thompson
• Osaka vs. Jabeur
• Haddad Maia vs. D.C. finalist Marie Bouzkova

5. Who’s going to win?

Montreal: I’ll take a rested defending champion, Jannik Sinner, over a potentially weary rest of the men’s field

Toronto: With a fairly depleted draw, and no Swiatek, this seems like the perfect opening for Aryna Sabalenka to get back in the winner’s circle for the first time since the Australian Open.