Are Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz ready to rule the way the Big 3 did? | Australian Open men's preview

How open is this year’s Australian Open men’s tournament? That may be the most important question as the year’s first Grand Slam event gets underway.

Has the ATP gone straight from a three-man ruling class to a new, two-man version, led by Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz? Or is there still a chance for a more democratic future to break out? The next two weeks in Melbourne will set the tone for 2025.

With play starting on Sunday—that’s Saturday night in the States—here’s a look at five highlights from the draw. (CLICK HERE for the full bracket.)

1. No, Jannik Sinner isn’t playing Nick Kyrgios anytime soon

Kyrgios didn’t waste a minute getting himself back in the leadings in his return this month. He did it by relentlessly lambasting Sinner for his failed doping test and lenient sentence last year. Kyrgios seemed to be lobbying for a showdown with the world No. 1, which he could turn into a partisan circus. Part of me expected the draw gods to magically oblige.

Instead, he landed at the bottom of the brackets, where he could face No. 2 seed Alexander Zverev in the third round. Kyrgios actually leads Zverev in their head-to-head 4-3, but they haven’t played since 2019. If they do meet, and Zverev does survive, it may still hurt his title chances. Win or lose, facing down Kyrgios in front of an Aussie audience is an enervating experience.

Is Sinner secretly relieved he won’t have that experience, unless it’s in the final? I’m guessing yes. While the defending champion’s draw isn’t a minefield, there are obstacles in the top quarter. He’ll face a heavy hitter in Nicolas Jarry in the first round (they’re 1-1 head to head). Hubert Hurkacz, who seems rejuvenated under a new coaching regime, could be his fourth-round opponent. And Alex de Minaur, Matteo Berrettini, Stefanos Tsitsipas or Holger Rune are lined up in the other half of his quarter.

2. Yes, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic could play in the quarterfinals

The Spaniard and the Serb have met in four finals and three semifinals, but never as early as a quarterfinal. Should we be pleased or appalled that it might happen here? I’m going to say pleased: A showdown that early may rob it of some fanfare, but it will also make it more likely to happen in the first place. These two have played the best match in each of the last three seasons, so I’ll take a meeting between them whenever possible.

So will we get it? Djokovic’s and Alcaraz’s early paths are both moderately difficult.

Alcaraz faces talented Russian Alexander Shevchenko first, and the other three seeds in his half are Jack Draper, Sebastian Korda and Jordan Thompson. Alcaraz is a combined 7-2 against them.

Djokovic plays a wild card to start, but his draw could get interesting in the third round, when he may play either Tomas Machac, a Czech up-and-comer; or Reilly Opelka, a serve machine who just beat him in Brisbane. His most likely fourth-round opponents will be either Jiri Lehecka or Grigor Dimitrov.

I’m guessing that Djokovic, back on his favorite court, will handle it. Whether he can handle Alcaraz may be another story.

3. Taylor Fritz has stepped into the Top 4, and will lead a large American brigade

Fritz, at 27, has reached the highest seeding rung in the sport: The Top 4 at a major. That makes him the highest seed in his quarter, and keeps him out of the crosshairs of Sinner, Alcaraz and Zverev until the semis. But it hasn’t kept him from having a potential meeting with No. 5 Daniil Medvedev, a three-time finalist Down Under, in the quarterfinals.

Fritz also hasn’t avoided his fellow Americans. He’ll start with a potentially tricky one in Jenson Brooksby, who is returning from a doping-related suspension, and who beat Fritz in their only meeting, in 2021. Other Yanks in this quarter include Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe and Brandon Nakashima.

As far as number of players go, the U.S. has taken Australia by storm this month, winning United Cup and heavily populating the fields at all events. Can any of them take home the big one? It’s a question the country’s men’s tennis fans have been asking for 22 years.

Fritz is a contender, but he may need chaos, in the form of prior losses by Sinner, Alcaraz and Djokovic, to ensue for him to have a legitimate chance. Tommy Paul is seeded eight spots below Fritz, but he has landed in a fairly safe spot, in the quarter led by Zverev and Casper Ruud. Another semifinal run for Paul isn’t out of the question.

4. There are reasons to tune in early

Here are the first-round matchups of note:

• Sinner vs. Jarry. They’re 1-1 head to head, and Jarry can hammer the ball.
• Matteo Berrettini vs. Cam Norrie. Berrettini, a past semifinalist in Melbourne, may finally be in a place where he can make another second-week run.
• Holger Rune vs. Zhang Zhizhen
• Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Alex Michelsen
• Alex De Minaur vs. Botic van der Zandschulp
• Fritz vs. Brooksby
• Gael Monfils vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
• Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima
• Andrey Rublev vs. 18-year-old Brazilian qualifier Joao Fonseca
• Alcaraz vs. Shevchenko
• Felix Auger Aliassime vs. Jan-Lennard Struff

5. And the winners will be…

Semifinals: Sinner d. Medvedev; Alcaraz d. Zverev

Final: Sinner d. Alcaraz