Jannik Sinner vs. Rafael Jodar preview—can Spain's new star pull off the upset in Madrid?

Jannik Sinner vs. Rafael Jodar

Eventually, every champion has to meet the younger player who will one day vie for his crown. Up to this point, Sinner has been the younger player in that scenario. He has spent much of his career fighting to overtake the last two of the Big 3, Rafael Nadal and especially Novak Djokovic. Now, at 24, he’ll be on the other side of the age divide, possibly for the first time.

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Sinner and Jodar, 19, haven’t played yet. But the Italian is aware of the significance of their first meeting, and the buzz that’s following the Spanish teen everywhere he goes. It sounds like Sinner already views him as a rival this spring. In fact, he couldn’t have hyped this match any better if he had been paid to promote it.

“It would be good if I face him before Rome and then Roland Garros, Sinner says. “Here is very unique conditions. He’s from Madrid, so he’s very used to these conditions here.”

Very exciting, new player. Big, big talent. Let’s see what’s coming.

Jodar is indeed a big talent. He seems to have everything—serve, forehand, backhand; height, power, speed, front-court skills—that a player needs to reach the Top 10, or the Top 5, or maybe even higher. He also appears to have a knack for taking a punch from his opponent, and responding with a more lethal one. On Sunday, he lost the second set to Joao Fonseca, then sprinted through the third 6-1. On Tuesday, Vit Kopriva stayed even with him for 10 games, until Jodar again found another gear and won the last eight.

How will Jodar’s ball-striking skills match up against Sinner’s? In Barcelona, he faced another top-level hitter in Arthur Fils, and he held his own before losing in three competitive sets. While Jodar is Spanish, his game seems closer to Sinner’s and Djokovic’s—it’s based more on pace than spin, and features a flat two-handed backhand that can break rallies open.

Jodar will have the crowd with him, as he has all week, and the court might feel like his backyard. But he wasn’t quite ready to beat Fils last week on another home court in Barcelona, which makes me think he won’t quite be ready to beat Sinner on this one. Winner: Sinner

Arthur Fils vs. Jiri Lehecka

As they rise in the rankings and go deeper into draws, Fils and Lehecka are getting to know each other better. They’ve already split a quarterfinal and a semifinal in 2026. Fils won 6-3, 6-3 in the Doha quarters; Lehecka won 6-2, 6-2 in the Miami semis.

The latter match may deserve an asterisk; Fils was coming off an marathon late-night win in his previous match, 7-6 in the third over Tommy Paul. Since then, he has won a title in Barcelona, and made himself, at least in my mind, the top threat to Sinner for the rest of the clay season.

But while he doesn’t have Fils’ flash, Lehecka’s own steady improvement can’t be ignored. He’s up to No. 14, and he just straight-setted a Top 10 opponent, Lorenzo Musetti.

Lehecka has an underrated serve, and is among the game’s cleanest ball-strikers; the conditions in Madrid would seem to be ideal for him. Fils is the better athlete, and hits the heavier ball. The difference, as it often does, may come down to desire and confidence. Fils shows more of it. That doesn’t mean he has more of it, but with a potential semifinal against Sinner or Jodar looming, I’d bet on him to fight tooth and nail, and to bring a neutral crowd over to his side. Winner: Fils

Marta Kostyuk vs. Linda Noskova

There have been a lot of surprises in the women’s draw in Madrid, and the appearance of these two in the quarterfinals is one of them. The top two seeds in this section were Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula, but Kostyuk bounced Pegula in straights, and Noskova edged Gauff in a third-set tiebreaker.

That these two players are still around is a surprise, but it shouldn’t be a shock. They’re both seeded—Noskova 13th, Kostyuk 26th. Kostyuk is coming off a title run on clay in Rouen, while Noskova reached her first WTA 1000 final last fall in Beijing. The Czech and the Ukrainian were both junior prodigies who started their pro careers early, and are still just 21 and 23, respectively. There’s a lot more to come from both.

Including more matches against each other. This will be their first as pros. Both like to hit hard, naturally. Noskova may be the better server and purer ball-striker, but Kostyuk may have the more well-rounded and athletic game. We’ll know more by the end of Wednesday. Winner: Kostyuk