Jannik Sinner returns, and will Elena Rybakina reach Riyadh?

The tennis season is winding up even as it winds down.

On the one hand, we’re more than 10 months into the 2025 schedule, with only a couple of major events to go.

On the other hand, this week we have three mid-size, 500-level tournaments that will serve as lead-ins to bigger competitions just ahead.

Who will make it into those bigger year-end competitions? We’ll know more after this week. Here are three takeaways from the draws in Vienna, Basel, and Tokyo, and a look what’s at stake in each.

Elena Rybakina is two wins from Riyadh

Maybe the biggest, or most surprising, news is who isn’t playing this week: Mirra Andreeva, who is currently seventh in the Riyadh chase, hasn’t entered the WTA 500 in Tokyo. That opens the door for the woman in ninth place, Elena Rybakina, to leap past her and snag the final position.

On Sunday, Rybakina helped herself by winning the title in Ningbo. Now, to pass Andreeva, she must make the semifinal in Tokyo. As the highest seed, she gets a bye, which means she only needs to win two matches. She’ll start against either Leylah Fernandez or Maria Sakkari. Then she would face one of four opponents: Victoria Mboko, Bianca Andreescu, Katie Boulter, or Eva Lys. The way Rybakina looked in Ningbo, she’ll be favored against any of them. And I’m guessing no one will would want to face if she’s still at that level in Riyadh.

If Rybakina loses before the semis, Andreeva qualifies for Riyadh.

Jannik Sinner returns in Vienna

The world No. 1 has been Turin-bound for weeks, if not months. But he returns to the tour a week earlier than his rival Carlos Alcaraz.

If he’s going to play a 500, he might as well do it in Vienna. He’s almost from Austria. He won it two years ago, as part of his initial rise to No. 1. He had to cut his previous effort, in Shanghai, short due to cramps. And with a title, he can put himself 500 points closer to Alcaraz at No. 1, with two tournaments to go. Sinner will start against Daniel Altmaier, and could play Alexander Bublik in the third round.

The seeds after Sinner are Alexander Zverev, Alex de Minaur, Lorenzo Musetti, Karen Khachanov, and Daniil Medvedev.

Zverev is fourth in the race to Turin, but hasn’t qualified yet. De Minaur is seventh and Musetti eighth. Both are in good positions, but can use whatever points they can get to hold off Felix Auger Aliassime, who is doing his best to track them down. Medvedev is currently in 12th place, but, with new coach Thomas Johansson, he has his sights set on a strong finish to 2025. On Sunday, he won his first title in more than two years, in Almaty.

🖥️📲 The Match in 15 Minutes: Medvedev vs. Moutet, Almaty

In Basel, Fritz and Shelton are top seeds, while Ruud and Auger-Aliassime are trying to surge into Turin

Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton are No. 5 and 6 in the race, respectively, and well placed to make it to Turin. For Fritz, it would be his third trip; for Shelton it would be his first, and he has made it a “big goal” of his season. Fritz will start against Valentin Vacherot, hero of Shanghai. Shelton, meanwhile, will try to shake off the left-shoulder injury that forced him out of the US Open, and made his Shanghai trip a brief one.

Read more: Felix Auger-Aliassime bolsters Turin chances with Brussels victory

The two players with the most to gain in Basel are Auger Aliassime and Casper Ruud. Both are coming off good results—Ruud won in Stockholm, Auger Aliassime took the title in Brussels. Both are trying to make an 11th-hour bid to reach Turin. Auger Aliassime is a few hundred points ahead of Ruud right now, and a few hundred out of eighth place. FAA will start against fellow Canadian Gabriel Diallo in Basel.