Will Jessica Pegula and Tommy Paul avoid second-round upsets at the Australian Open?

Before each day's play in Melbourne, we'll preview three must-see matches.

Jessica Pegula vs. Elise Mertens

Pegula, the seventh seed, has a number of difficult opponents in her quarter: Coco Gauff, Karolina Muchova, Paula Badosa, to name a few. But she can’t look ahead to any of them, because the trickiest foe of all for her might be right across the net in Margaret Court Arena on Wednesday morning. In three previous matches against Mertens, Pegula has taken just one set. Their most recent meeting, at Roland Garros in 2023, ended in rapid fashion, 6-1, 6-3 in favor of the Belgian.

Just as ominous, Mertens—who is ranked 34th, two spots out of the seedings—has started the season well. She reached the final of her first event, in Hobart, and saved two match points in her first-round win over Viktorija Golubic. She may feel she’s already playing with house money.

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Then again, Pegula also made the final of her first tournament, in Adelaide, and she’s a three-time quarterfinalist at the Australian Open. She likes a quick hard court, and the surface Down Under has been getting faster. She had no trouble dismissing 18-year-old wild card Maya Joint in the first round.

What explains Mertens’ success against Pegula? They play similar games, hitting hard and mostly flat, without a ton of spin or variation, and they both like to use their opponents’ pace against them. Since their last meeting, Pegula has made a coaching change—and a run to her first major final. Maybe the confidence from that, and playing on her favorite surface, will be enough to finally get her across the finish line against the Belgian. Winner: Pegula

Karolina Muchova vs. Naomi Osaka

Is this the next step on an Osaka revenge tour? In her first match, Naomi beat Carolina Garcia, who knocked her out of the Australian Open a year ago. Now she’ll take on Muchova, the player who sent her packing in the second round at the US Open last summer.

The problem for Osaka is that Muchova will also be a step up in level. She went all the way to the semifinals at Flushing Meadows, has been ranked in the Top 10, and also made the semis in Melbourne three years ago. This is a surface and an atmosphere she likes, and she surrendered just two games in her opener against Nadia Podoroska.

Still, Osaka made Muchova sweat in New York. In a nervy, topsy-turvy affair, she had three set points to take it to a third set, only to lose in a tiebreaker, when she pounded the easiest of swing volleys two feet wide on match point. Muchova won in straights, but the match felt like it could veer off in a completely different direction at any time.

That night, Muchova had success reading—or at least guessing at—Osaka’s serve, and mixing in her trademark changes of spin and pace.

“It was a plan,” she said afterward. “I wanted to change the rhythm. I tried it. I felt like it was working, so I just stick to that plan.”

Look for more of the same type of creativity and disruption from Muchova when they meet again in Kia Arena on Thursday afternoon. This time I think Osaka, who is off to a good start with new coach Patrick Mouratoglou in 2025, will be ready for it. Winner: Osaka

Tommy Paul vs. Kei Nishikori

No rest for the weary: Paul and Nishikori are each coming off grueling five-set wins.

Paul survived a comeback bid by Australia’s Chris O’Connell in front a feverishly partisan crowd; the American tightened up when he served for the match in the fourth set, then fought through a shoulder injury to take the decider 7-5. Nishikori, meanwhile, came back from two sets down, and saved two match points, against Thiago Monteiro.

It’s tempting to think that, at 35, Nishikori will be worse off for wear when he meets the 27-year-old Paul on Thursday afternoon. But Nishikori specializes in five-set marathons, and he has looked rejuvenated to start 2025, having made the final of his first event, in Hong Kong. He also won his only previous match with Paul, on hard courts in D.C.

But that was seven years ago, and Paul has come a long way since then. With a draw that will keep him far from the Alcarazes and Sinners of the world, he must believe he has a decent shot to make his second trip to the semifinals at this tournament. If he’s healthy and playing well, he should have more game than Nishikori at this stage of their careers. Hopefully for him, his shoulder will let him show it. Winner: Paul