Jim Courier: Naomi Osaka will look to attack Coco Gauff serve in US Open clash

NEW YORK—The 2025 US Open will celebrate Labor Day with one its most anticipated matches of the tournament as former champions Coco Gauff (2023) and Naomi Osaka (2018, 2020) face off in the fourth round of women’s singles Monday afternoon.

Gauff and Osaka met for the first time on court at this very tournament in 2019, when a 15-year-old Gauff battled into the third round but fell to defending champion Osaka under the lights on Arthur Ashe Stadium. Gauff now leads their head-to-head 3-2, winning their most recent meeting last fall at the China Open when Osaka was forced to retire due to injury.

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The rivals will meet during the day this time, conditions TC Analyst Lindsay Davenport believes will favor Gauff after the 2023 champion struggled during at night in her first two matches, with former Australian Open semifinalist Chanda Rubin arguing the match will come down to Gauff’s defense versus Osaka’s offense.

“At times, she’s been able to rely on her speed, on her wheels, and she will do a bit of that today against Osaka,” Rubin said on Monday’s episode of Tennis Channel Live. “I think that’s going to be a bit of the push and pull. Osaka will be looking to shorten up points; that’s been her MO this whole tournament so far. Gauff will be looking to extend rallies; can she get Osaka missing on the edges of the court? I think that’s going to be a big factor.”

The matchup may also hinge on Gauff’s serve, a shot that has been under a microscope throughout the summer as the reigning Roland Garros champion has struggled with double-digit double faults since capturing her second major victory in Paris.

Gauff came to Flushing Meadows with a revamped team in tow, hiring biomechanic expert Gavin MacMillan and tasking him with the responsibility of fixing her service motion. MacMillan famously did the same for Aryna Sabalenka, who went on to win three Grand Slam titles and become world No. 1.

“Can she continue to flood the court with first serves where she’s not allowing Osaka to step in on those first balls? That remains to be seen,” said Rubin. “On Osaka’s side of the court, she’s used her forehand so well, particularly the forehand down the line. She’s changed the patterns when she’s needed to, but can she do that against Gauff with Gauff’s speed.”

In addition to stepping in on return, Osaka will also aim to target the Gauff forehand, often seen as the weaker of the American’s groundstrokes, but Rubin cautions Osaka test the shot at her peril.

Players sometimes play Gauff a little too wide on the forehand, where she can get more angle and it’s difficult to change direction. Can Osaka get it to the forehand cross court, but more through the court where she can have those opportunities to change direction and dictate? It’s a lot of strategizing along with everything else going on between the ears. Chanda Rubin on Gauff vs. Osaka

“Players sometimes play Gauff a little too wide on the forehand, where she can get more angle and it’s difficult to change direction. Can Osaka get it to the forehand cross court, but more through the court where she can have those opportunities to change direction and dictate? It’s a lot of strategizing along with everything else going on between the ears.”

Davenport, a 1998 US Open champion, noted Gauff’s strong serving day against Magdalena Freçh in the third round, but warned that Osaka presents an entirely different challenge on return.

“Freçh was only managing groundstroke speeds in the 60s and for returns, she was behind the baseline, not trying to be aggressive. All the sudden, Gauff today comes out against one of the power hitters. She struggled a bit against \[Ajla\] Tomljanovic and struggled against [Donna] Vekic, as well; they are players who take balls early, hit hard and through the court. I’ve got to imagine Osaka’s going to be on that baseline, ready to attack the second serve. Now let’s see how Gauff handles that with her second serve.”

Fellow former world No. 1 Jim Courier upped the proverbial ante on Davenport’s analysis, arguing Osaka should look to attack both first and second serves on Monday.

“It’s really just second serve speed that Coco’s largely been hitting to flood the court with first serves and destress the situation,” said Courier.

Still, Gauff looked much calmer on court after edging past Tomljanovic and Vekic, and may get up for a marquee match like the one she’ll face against Osaka.

“Of course, she wants to go deep in this tournament, but if she loses to Osaka, that’s a little more palatable than in the first three rounds,” said Courier, predicting the high-quality opponent will have the ironic effect of lessening the pressure on Gauff.

Gauff and Osaka will play second after 11:30AM on Ashe Stadium.