With each player having had some time to find some rhythm on the clay, we’re appraising this match as if both are in good form. And with that, it’s hard to see this as a match that Martinez shouldn’t win. These two have met only twice in their careers thus far, but Martinez is 2-0. One of them was a clay-court battle in the qualifying rounds in Sao Paulo back in 2019, while the other was a 2-1 victory for Martinez in US Open qualifying the same year. Obviously, those matches were both some time ago, but that would really only be a negative if Martinez was older and regressing. Instead, he’s just 25 years old, smack in the middle of his prime, while the 30-year-old Coria is sliding in the rankings a bit.
Not only does Martinez have the head-to-head edge, but he also happens to be rather comfortable at this event. Last year, the Spaniard was the runner-up at this tournament, ultimately losing to Casper Ruud in the final. There’s no shame in losing to a player of Ruud’s caliber, but Martinez must now go out and show up against a player he is expected to beat. He can be counted on to do that. Even his loss in Gstaad last week came against Matteo Berrettini, who just was too good and too powerful for him—yet Martinez still found a way to take a set, and he forced him to a tiebreaker in the second.
Overall, we’re just banking on Martinez overcoming a player that he has defeated twice already, and you should expect his fighting mentality to be on full display as he looks to improve upon last year’s performance in Kitzbuhel.
Line Call: Martinez To Win (-148)