Line Calls, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook: Tallon Griekspoor vs. Novak Djokovic, Paris

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic returned from nearly a month and a half away from tour-level action on Wednesday, when he beat Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-3, 6-2 at the Rolex Paris Masters. Djokovic definitely didn’t flash his all-world form throughout that one, but his B+ game was enough to get the job done against the Argentinean.

Djokovic will need to be a bit better than that in order to beat Tallon Griekspoor and book his spot in the quarterfinals. And while I do think the 24-time Grand Slam champion should win, I don’t think he’ll do so without some hiccups. That’s why I’m playing the Dutchman to win Over 7.5 games in this match.

Griekspoor likely won’t do much damage against Djokovic when the two of them engage in longer rallies, but I think the 27-year-old can serve well enough to cash this bet. Griekspoor’s hold percentage is up at 86.4% this season, and that’s good for the eighth highest on tour. Griekspoor doesn’t have the same size as some of the other big servers, but he can still dial up some massive serves. The Dutchman is also good at hitting his spots. With that in mind, I like his chances of potentially forcing a tiebreaker in this match, or just winning four or five games in back-to-back sets.

Djokovic is one of the best returners on the planet, but he hasn’t played many matches recently. That might make it challenging for him to read some of Griekspoor’s serves. That wasn’t a problem against Etcheverry, who isn’t anything special with the ball on his racquet. The conditions in Paris are favorable for the server. These courts don’t play quite as fast as some other indoor courts, but big servers generally like playing indoor hard-court tournaments. There’s no wind for anybody to deal with, and the balls tend to bounce lower. So, that’ll also make it hard for Djokovic to go out and give Griekspoor problems on his serve.

On top of all of that, Griekspoor just happens to be playing some great tennis right now. After beating Christopher Eubanks 6-7 (2), 6-3, 6-4 in his first match in Paris, the Dutchman followed it up with a dominant 6-2, 6-2 win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. He has now won five of his last seven matches, and one of those losses was a tight one against a red-hot Hubert Hurkacz.

Griekspoor is likely feeling extremely confident entering this match. And while it might be intimidating for him to have to face the greatest player in the history of the sport, he can easily cash this by just putting his head down and handling his business.

Line Call: Griekspoor Over 7.5 Total Games Won (-115)