Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniil Medvedev, Rome semis

In one of the sport's more heated rivalries, we like the plus-money odds on a guy that is 37-5 this season.

Published May 19, 2023

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In the semifinals of the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, we’re getting a massive showdown between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev. The Russian won the first five encounters between these two heavyweights, but Tsitsipas has since gone 4-2. It's been nearly six months since their last battle, with Tsitsipas having earned a 6-3, 6-7 (11), 7-6 (1) win over Medvedev at the 2022 ATP Finals. Medvedev, however, has taken his game to new heights in 2023, while Tsitsipas has leveled off a bit.

The most surprising part of Medvedev’s season has been his play on clay. Known for hating this surface, the 2021 US Open champion had mixed results coming into 2023. But Medvedev is 8-2 on red dirt this spring, and that 80% success rate is notably better than his career win percentage of 50 on the surface.

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The winner of Saturday's semifinal will play for his first Masters 1000 clay-court crown.

With Medvedev now performing at a higher level on clay, we no longer need to significantly lower our expectations for him in a matchup like this one. Sure, Tsitsipas has a better track record on the surface, but Medvedev is the better overall player. With that in mind, it definitely seems like we’re getting a good price on Medvedev, who is 37-5 on the year and will lead the ATP's Singles Race heading into Roland Garros.

Tsitsipas’ biggest weapons right now are his serve and his forehand. But Medvedev is one of the sport's best returners, and the slow surface should only make it easier for him to redirect Tsitsipas’ serve. As for the forehand, Medvedev will do everything in his power to avoid it. Borna Coric tried to pepper Tsitsipas’ backhand side on Thursday, but he didn’t have the precision required to execute that gameplan effectively. Medvedev does. Look for the Russian to really hit some nice angled shots to that side of the court to make Tsitsipas uncomfortable.

Medvedev is also just a more resilient player between these two, and that’s something you can’t take lightly. Tsitsipas can get in his own head rather often, but Medvedev is somewhat unflappable out there. The former world No. 1 also can’t stand the Greek, so he’ll have a little more motivation to get the job done here. He would love to do it on a surface that people think Tsitsipas is better on.

Line Call: Medvedev To Win (+124)

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