Miami Open women's preview: Are Sabalenka and Rybakina on another level?

The Sunshine Double kicks into a higher—or at least faster—gear in its second half. Miami, like Indian Wells, is a hard-court 1000 with a 96-player draw. But the surface is a little quicker, the fans a little louder, the humidity a little—OK, a lot—higher, and the pace of life much more frenetic. We’re also one week closer to the peak intensity of the Grand Slam season.

Who’s ready to step up their games, or, in the case of the top performers from last week, keep them at a high level? Here are three things to look for as the women move east, and close out hard courts until July.

Can Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina make it four big-stage clashes in a row?

All of a sudden, we have a new rivalry at the top of the WTA Tour. As of this week, Sabalenka and Rybakina are ranked No. 1 and 2, and they’ve met in three straight top-tier finals: WTA Finals, Australian Open, Indian Wells. The last two were high-quality three-setters, with each player winning one. Together, they’re about as high-powered a pair as we’ve seen, and they’ve separated themselves from the pack. This is what we want to see, right?

The problem in Miami—if it is a problem—is that they’re on track to meet in the semifinals, rather than the final. The seedings were done when Iga Swiatek was still No. 2, so she’s the second seed, and Rybakina has landed in Sabalenka’s half. There’s no reason to think they won’t play again. Sabalenka is the defending champ in Miami, and Rybakina is a two-time runner-up here. In 2023, she fell match one short of the Sunshine Double.

They have comparably difficult paths to the semifinals.

Sabalenka’s competition could come from Madison Keys or Zheng Qinwen. Jasmine Paolini is the second-highest seed in her section, but Elina Svitolina is the most in-form player. Sabalenka wouldn’t face either until the quarters.

Rybakina may play Marta Kostyuk in the third round. In the fourth, she could have a first-ever meeting with Naomi Osaka. In the quarters, she might face Jessica Pegula, a finalist here in 2025, but whom she just defeated in the Indian Wells quarterfinals.

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Who has a chance to keep them from holding another trophy?

Iga Swiatek: Last year Iga went from spiraling in the clay season to surging at Wimbledon and Cincy. This year she’s in hit-and-miss mode so far, with promising wins followed by head-scratching losses. A champion in Miami in 2022, her path may not be all that smooth this time: Alex Eala, Karolina Muchova, Victoria Mboko and Mirra Andreeva are in her quarter.

Coco Gauff: The American is a question mark to start. She had to retire in Indian Wells with nerve pain in her arm that felt, she said, like “a firework was going off.” Miami qualifies as her hometown 1000, but that hasn’t helped her; she’s never been past the fourth round. She could play Maria Sakkari in the third round, Linda Noskova in the fourth round and Amanda Anisimova in the quarters.

Amanda Anisimova: Speaking of the sixth seed, Anisimova also grew up in Florida, and also hasn’t made it out of the fourth round in Miami. Are we getting to the “she could use a big run” stage with her in 2026? She finished 2025 with a final at the US Open and a title in Beijing; this year she’s made one semi in five events. She’s in Gauff’s quarter, and could have a tricky start against Ajla Tomljanovic.

Jessica Pegula: Of the three top U.S. contenders, Pegula is the one who likes Miami the best. She has made a final, two semis and a quarterfinal over the past four years. She’s been very much in form in 2026, but will that be enough if she meets Rybakina in the quarters? She’s 0-3 against her since October.

Elina Svitolina: She’s 19-4 in 2026, just lost a pretty close semifinal to Rybakina in Indian Wells, and has been to the semis in Miami. If her current good form holds, she could get a quarterfinal with Sabalenka. She’s 1-6 against her.

What are the (potential) early-round matches to watch?

• Madison Keys vs. Zheng Qinwen, third round
• Jasmine Paolini vs. Taylor Townsend, second round
• Iva Jovic vs. Paula Badosa, second round
• Venus Williams vs. Francesca Jones, first round
• Anisimova vs. Tomljanovic, second round
• Gauff vs. Maria Sakkari, third round
• Swiatek vs. Alexandra Eala, third round