Monte Carlo Preview: The QF slate, including Zverev-Fonseca and Alcaraz-Bublik, should live up to the setting

Quarterfinal Friday at Monte Carlo has to be one of the best tickets in tennis.

Because the surface is clay, there will be long, athletic, often-artistic rallies—dirtball is best seen live and up close.

Because the tournament is a Masters 1000, you usually see a star player or two. Rafael Nadal was a Friday fixture here for the better part of two decades. This year his co-heirs, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, are in action.

Because the location is Monaco—technically the town next door, Roquebrune-Cap-Martin, France—you also get the Mediterranean, its sun, and it’s sky. Weather permitting, of course.

On paper, at least, the matches look like they might live up to the setting this year. Here’s a preview of the first four quarters of the clay season.

Alexander Zverev vs. Joao Fonseca

This will be the inaugural meeting between the German veteran and the Brazilian prodigy. Game-wise, they make for a stark contrast. Zverev likes to massage the ball around the court with depth and topspin, and rely on his 6’6 length to cover the baseline. Fonseca, meanwhile, has never met a forehand that he couldn’t pulverize. On Thursday, his 105-m.p.h. bullet left Matteo Berrettini shaking his head.

Stream this match live on the Tennis Channel app!

Form-wise, Zverev and Fonseca have more in common. Both had their lulls and stumbles in 2025, but both have looked refreshed over the past couple month. Fonseca made a fourth-round run in Indian Wells, while Zverev reached the semis in Miami. Both lost tough two-setters to Jannik Sinner—no shame in that.

In Monte Carlo, Fonseca and Zverev have each survived a three-setter—Zverev against Cristian Garin, Fonseca against Arthur Rindeknech. And each looked better in their straight-set round of 16 wins. We don’t know how they’ll match top face to face. On the one hand, Fonseca looks like he might be ready to uncork an upset. On the other hand, Zverev isn’t easy for most guys to bully off of a clay court, especially when he’s as confident as he seems to be right now.

I’ll go with experience over youth, and caution over boldness, until proven otherwise. Winner: Zverev

Jannik Sinner vs. Felix Auger Aliassime

The numbers all say Sinner.

He’s ranked No. 2, Auger-Aliassime is No. 7. They played four times in 2025, and Sinner won all four. Right now he’s on a 14-match win streak, and he was 12-0 in Indian Wells and Miami. FAA was 3-2 during the Sunshine Swing.

Is there any hope for an upset, or a competitive contest? I’d say there are a couple of reasons, though you may have to squint to see them.

Stream this match live on the Tennis Channel app!

On Thursday, Sinner surrendered his first set since February, to Tomas Machac. The Italian’s game briefly went haywire in the second set, and just when it appeared he would pull it out anyway, he faltered in the tiebreaker, too. At the same time, Auger-Aliassime was digging himself out of an 0-3 start against Casper Ruud, and playing some determined tennis to do it.

FAA has weapons, and while he has never won a title on clay, his serve-forehand combination works on all surfaces. Still, like most players, he doesn’t match up all that well against Sinner. His backhand can go awry, and if someone has a weakness, Sinner will find it, either with his serve or his probing, precise ground strokes.

Last year at the US Open, Auger-Aliassime won a set from him by playing extremely inspired tennis and taking over the rallies for about 45 minutes. If he can do that again, he’ll make this a match. But even then, I wouldn’t bet on him to win it. Winner: Sinner

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Bublik

I wouldn’t go so far as to say that the tennis world has been waiting for this matchup to happen. But it’s nice, and intriguing, that we’ll finally have a chance to see it. Alcaraz and Bublik have been on tour together for five years, and have gone deep in many of the same draws, but they’ve never faced off. Maybe that’s why Bublik looked so fired up to win a tight second set against Jiri Lehecka on Thursday, and secure his date with the ATP’s No. 1.

Alcaraz is an appealing opponent for Bublik because he’ll have nothing to lose against him, at least to start. He can feel free to show off his full shot-making repertoire, and put his drop shot up against Alcaraz’s more famous one. Bublik has already proven that he can beat a Top 2 player, as he did against Sinner in Halle last year. And he has proven that he can succeed on clay, as he did when he made the quarterfinals at Roland Garros in 2025. He has the serve and the ground-stroke pace to take the initiative away from Alcaraz.

Stream this match live on the Tennis Channel app!

Bublik will also know that the Spaniard hasn’t been quite as flawless recently as he was at the start of the year. He lost early in Miami, and he dropped a set to Tomas Etcheverry on Thursday before bouncing back in the third. Alcaraz’s erratic side has resurfaced of late.

Alcaraz’s early level of play will be important on Friday. If Bublik begins to believe in his chances, he can be dangerous. If he loses that belief, a match can get away from him quickly. We saw that when he met Sinner at the US Open last year.

Bublik is consistently unpredictable, and right now Alcaraz is the same way. Like I said, this is an intriguing one. Winner: Alcaraz

Alex de Minaur vs. Valentin Vacherot

Every year we see a lot of Monte Carlo residents, from Sinner to Novak Djokovic to Daniil Medvedev, play their adopted-hometown tournament. But this is the first time we’ve watched a true native reach the quarterfinals. Vacherot is from the aforementioned Roquebrune-Cap-Martin, which also houses the Monte Carlo Country Club.

His local status has come in handy. The unseeded, 23rd-ranked Monégasque has won two three-setters this week, and another close two-setter, with plenty of noisy help from friends and family—and even club employees—in the stands. When he blew a 4-0 lead and dropped the first set to Hubert Hurkacz on Thursday, he didn’t have any trouble picking himself back up.

“With the crowd and everything, it was really easy to get back in there,” Vacherot said. “The longer it goes, the more confidence I have.”

Stream this match live on the Tennis Channel app!

Vacherot credits his “physicality” for that confidence. He’s a solidly built 6’4 who plays with an imposing mix of power and endurance. The question now is: How much of that will he have left? On Wednesday, he edged Lorenzo Musetti in two close sets, and on Thursday he closed out Hurkacz in three, at 9:30 in the evening. On Friday he’ll get a comparatively rested De Minaur less than 24 hours later.

Vacherot and De Minaur, both 27, have never played. The Australian is ranked 17 spots higher, has more experience on stages like this, and doesn’t tend to tire or give in easily. He’s steady and speedy enough to make Vacherot work for everything he gets.

Will that be enough to finally grind the local hero down and end his magical run? We’ll have to wait, possibly until late, to see. Winner: De Minaur