Pick of the Day: David Goffin vs. Nick Kyrgios, Wimbledon

WATCH: In his season debut, Nick Kyrgios lost to Wu Yibing in the first round in Stuttgart.

Editor's note: This article was published prior to Kyrgios' withdrawal from Wimbledon due to a wrist injury, which was announced on Sunday evening.

Last year’s Wimbledon runner-up Nick Kyrgios has been bothered by a knee injury for most of the 2023 season. The talented-but-controversial Australian now comes into this year’s tournament with just one grass match under his belt, and that was a straight-set loss at the hands of Wu Yibing. Despite all of that uncertainty, I do think Kyrgios is a good -150 bet to beat David Goffin in the first round at the All England Club.

The reality here is that Kyrgios’ game is just much better suited for grass-court surfaces.

He possesses one of the biggest serves on the planet, which should be extremely difficult for Goffin to get back into play. Kyrgios also happens to have a ton of power from the baseline, which should allow him to win points quickly on these faster surfaces. That'll be crucial for a banged-up player that doesn't want to get involved in many long rallies. On top of that, Kyrgios possesses some nice touch at the net, and his variety should be a little too much for Goffin to overcome in this match.

Another thing to like about Kyrgios in this match is that this is something of a low-risk play. If the Australian doesn’t feel like his knee is allowing him to compete to the best of his abilities, I’d expect him to retire at some point in the match. That would likely result in a push, which I view as the worst-case scenario in this spot.

It’s also a little hard to ignore the fact that Kyrgios is 3-1 against Goffin in tour-level matches, with the one loss coming in Davis Cup play in 2017. The Aussie has had a lot of success against Goffin, even when he wasn’t quite at the peak of his game. These two have gone in different directions since then, with Kyrgios becoming a force on the ATP Tour and Goffin turning into a middle-of-the-pack player.

These odds are simply too good to pass up, even with Kyrgios entering with some red flags. It’s very hard to envision a scenario in which this match is completed and Goffin comes out victorious.

Pick: Kyrgios ML (-150)