Pick of the Day: Liudmila Samsonova vs. Iga Swiatek, Beijing

Swiatek has looked remarkable throughout this tournament, but Samsonova is one of the best hard-court players in the world.

ByZachary Cohen

Published Oct 07, 2023

Beijing - Match Highlights - Samsonova V Rybakina - Sf Original Video M33646

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Iga Swiatek is coming off a commanding straight-sets win over Coco Gauff in the semifinals of the China Open. Gauff entered that one on a 16-match winning streak—a streak that included a victory over Swiatek in the semifinals of the Western & Southern Open. So, in many ways, Swiatek's 6-2, 6-3 rout doubled as a statement that she still sits atop the women’s game.

However, the job isn’t complete for the Polish phenom, who now faces Liudmila Samsonova in the Beijing final. And overall, I do think the Russian will give Swiatek some problems here.

Earlier this season, Swiatek dismantled Samsonova, 6-1, 6-0, in a February meeting in Dubai. But their previous matchup in Stuttgart saw the two battling it out in a 6-7 (4), 6-4, 7-5 win for Swiatek. And I think that first encounter—which took place on clay in 2022—is a little more indicative of what Samsonova can do in this matchup.

Although she trails Swiatek 0-2 in their head-to-head, expect Samsonova to give the world No. 2 some trouble in Beijing.

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Samsonova is only the 22nd ranked player in the world right now, but she’s up at 11th when you look at hard-court Elo rating amongst WTA players. This is the surface that really brings out the best in her game, which is why she has played at a high level in the summer and early fall two years in a row. Samsonova is a reliable server and clean ball striker from the baseline. She can really punish the ball when she’s on her game, which allows her to hit through most opponents. Of course, hitting through Swiatek is very difficult, as she’s an elite mover. But Swiatek has trouble against opponents that can hit with power and force her to rush a little—something Samsonova can do well when she’s playing her best tennis.

With all of that in mind, I do believe Swiatek should win this match. After all, she’s a heavy favorite to do so and sits at 2-0 in this head-to-head series. But I like the value on Samsonova to take a single set in this one, especially with this being something of a letdown spot for Swiatek.

The world No. 2 just got revenge on an opponent that has proven she can be a thorn in her side moving forward. That said, Swiatek might struggle to get up for this one, even if it is a final. So, I’d suggest putting a little something on this play, even if it’s a little less than you normally put on a match.

Bet: Samsonova +1.5 Sets (+125)

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