Pick of the Day: Novak Djokovic gets Jannik Sinner rematch with the ATP Finals title at stake

On Sunday, Jannik Sinner will face Novak Djokovic in the championship match at the Nitto ATP Finals.

Sinner is fresh off a three-set win over Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals, while Djokovic absolutely beat up on Carlos Alcaraz. Now, we get a rematch of a clash we saw in group play earlier in the week, when Sinner came away with a 7-5, 6-7 (5), 7-6 (2) victory. This one should have a crazy atmosphere, as the fans in Turin will be losing their minds for Sinner. That energy has definitely given the Italian No. 1 a little extra fuel this week, but will it be enough for him to beat the greatest player of all time twice in one week? I’d be stunned if it was.

If you read our pre-tournament betting preview, there’s a good chance you have Djokovic to win this thing at +140 odds. However, if you’re just looking to bet this match on its own, I’d still bet on the 24-time Grand Slam champion. It’s just hard to ignore that Djokovic has won this event six times in his career. The Serbian also made it to the final of all four Grand Slams this season, and his resume simply speaks for itself. Meanwhile, this is the biggest match of Sinner’s career, by far. The world No. 4 has been superb in big moments over the second half of the season, but this is a little different. I’m expecting some serious nerves from the 22-year-old here.

It’s also hard to put into words how good a player has to be to beat Djokovic just once. So, to expect Sinner to go out and find that level again seems unfair, especially with Djokovic having really found his form in the win over Alcaraz. Djokovic’s serve was deadly whenever it needed to be and he also came up with the goods on numerous extended rallies.

I expect him to do the same against Sinner, especially after having had the match earlier in the week to learn his tendencies. I also don’t see Sinner being as precise as he was in group play, when the stakes were a little lower. Sinner has a live arm and power for days from both sides of the court, but he’ll need to be hitting his spots regularly in order to beat Djokovic again.

I also think that Djokovic has the motivation required to lock in and play his best tennis here. People had doubts over how much he’d care about this tournament, but the loss to Sinner and the meeting with Alcaraz gave him everything he needed to get himself amped up. Djokovic never wants to lose to Alcaraz, who is his newest rival on tour. And he certainly doesn’t want to lose twice in a row against Sinner, especially in Italy. Djokovic is going to bring out his inner villain and try to send the fans home with some disappointment.

Pick: Djokovic ML (-170)