Roland Garros Quarterfinal Previews: Rybakina vs. Paolini, Sabalenka vs. Andreeva, Zverev vs. de Minaur

Elena Rybakina vs. Jasmine Paolini

You could be forgiven if you’re surprised to learn that Rybakina is still in this tournament. The No. 4 seed has played most of her matches early in the day, and none of her straight-set wins have offered much drama. She’ll open the proceedings in Chatrier again on Wednesday, but it won’t be quite as early, thanks to Novak Djokovic’s withdrawal from the tournament.

Her opponent, Paolini, has also flown well under the radar. Her one win of note came in three sets over Bianca Andreescu. The energetic Italian is into her first Grand Slam quarterfinal at age 28.

Rybakina and Paolini have played two completed matches, and Rybakina has won both. The most recent, on clay in Stuttgart in April, went three sets. Style-wise, it will be a battle of opposites. Rybakina is 6-feet tall, hits the ball hard and mostly flat, and would much rather be attacking than defending. Paolini is 5'4", and relies on speed, spin and scrambling to win her points. If she can scrap well enough to hold her own early, the crowd should get behind this speed merchant.

But not much, including fast opponents, has troubled Rybakina at Roland Garros, or anywhere else in 2024. She’s 34-5 on the season, and is looking to cash in with a big title. Paolini will have an uphill climb derailing that goal. Winner: Rybakina

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Mirra Andreeva

“Whatever happened to Mirra Andreeva?” was a question I almost asked myself earlier this spring. The idea is absurd, of course; she’s still just 17, and isn’t even allowed to play a full schedule of tournaments yet. But after a good start to the year in Brisbane and Melbourne, she entered Madrid in May having lost three of her last five. Had the Russian phenom hit a speed bump? Was her rise not going to be as meteoric as we thought?

I may have asked those questions a little too soon. With coach Conchita Martinez in her corner, Andreeva made the quarters in Madrid, beating Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova along the way. Now she’s into the quarters at Roland Garros. In the second round, she beat former No. 1 Victoria Azarenka 7-5 in the third; in the third round, she demolished Peyton Stearns—who had beaten her at Indian Wells—6-2, 6-1.

In Madrid, Andreeva lost to Sabalenka 6-1, 6-4. Now she’ll face her again. What will she do differently this time? As of Monday, she said she didn’t have a clue.

“Of course we will add a few adjustments,” Andreeva said. “We will change something, because the way I played last two times didn’t work. So of course me, I don’t have anything in my head, so I hope my coach will help me with it.”

“She’s a player of another level, so I have to be prepared from the beginning. I hope my coach will help me with that.”

At least Andreeva is honest. The default answer in that situation is to say you need to be “more aggressive” and “play my game.” If anything, though, Sabalenka’s last opponent, Emma Navarro, was a little too aggressive. She never topped trying to attack Sabalenka’s second serve, and it never started working for her.

In Madrid, Sabalenka said she tried to make sure Andreeva didn’t get off to a good start and gain any early confidence.

“She’s a young player, nothing to lose, so you have to be really focused and not give her much opportunity,” said Sabalenka.

Sabalenka tried to make sure Andreeva doubted her chances. Can Andreeva do the opposite and put some doubt into Sabalenka’s head on Wednesday? Nobody has found a way so far, and I don’t think Andreeva, at 17, has quite enough firepower, or big-stage poise, to make it happen. Winner: Sabalenka

Alexander Zverev vs. Alex de Minaur

On Monday, de Minaur brought a 2-6 record against his opponent, Daniil Medvedev, into their fourth-round match. When it was over, he was 3-6. On Wednesday, he’ll bring a 2-7 record into his quarterfinal with Alexander Zverev. Can the Aussie walk away 3-7?

de Minaur’s record against Zverev in 2024 is more promising. He beat the German in United Cup to start the season, before losing to him in Indian Wells. Both matches were on hard courts, and both went three sets.

Zverev will have the advantage in the rubber match, which will be the night session in Chatrier. He’s six inches taller than de Minaur, he’ll get many more free points from his serve and, historically, he’s much more comfortable on clay. de Minaur loves to counter-punch, but he won’t be able to rely on that part of his game as much against Zverev, who, despite his height advantage, likes to rally rather than attack.

Maybe most important, Zverev has proven impossible to kill so far this year in Paris. He trailed Tallon Greikspoor 4-1 in the fifth set, and Holger Rune by two sets to one. But he never panicked, and was the last man standing both times. This could easily be another marathon, and de Minaur may look at times as if he’s going to win it. But I’ll take Zverev to stagger to the finish line first one more time. Winner: Zverev