Roland Garros Betting Preview: Jacob Fearnley vs. Ugo Humbert

The French crowds at Roland Garros create one of the greatest home atmospheres in tennis, so Ugo Humbert is going to be feeling the love when he takes on Jacob Fearnley in the second round. But if anybody can handle a raucous atmosphere, it’s Jacob Fearnley.

Fearnley was a standout college player at TCU, helping the Horned Frogs win the NCAA Division I men’s championship in 2024. Playing college at that high of a level exposes you to some crazy opposing crowds. That’s why a lot of former college stars say they enjoy loud venues once they get to the pros. Fearnley is going to experience one at Court Simonne-Mathieu, and I think it’s going to bring out the best in him.

While Humbert will have a home-court advantage, he’s just 15-33 on clay in his career. He’s also just 2-7 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks. Humbert’s game just isn’t a great fit when playing outdoors in the elements—and he's been hampered by a broken bone in his right hand. Fearnley should be able to expose that.

Fearnley’s forehand should be the best baseline shot in this match, and I’d expect the Brit to target Humbert’s backhand with it. The Frenchman doesn’t have a great backhand on a good day, and playing with his right hand wrapped has only made it worse. Fearnley does a good job of putting heavy topspin on his forehand, and he takes the ball early. He should be able to quickly put that shot to Humbert's backhand side without giving the Frenchman time to run around and hit a forehand.

Fearnley is also a solid returner, so he should be able to put ample pressure on the Humbert serve. Humbert had a hold percentage of 85.9% in 2024, and while that number is down at 82.9% in 2025, he’s still great with the ball on his racquet. But Humbert’s hold percentage is just 74.7% on clay in his career, which isn’t surprising considering how much easier it is to get rallies back to neutral on this surface.

If I knew Humbert was fully healthy, I probably wouldn’t be making this play. But that simply isn’t the case. I’ll continue to have him downgraded until we get to grass season, when his hand should be healed.

Pick: Fearnley ML (+112)