Hubert Hurkacz is fresh off a run to the final in Geneva, where he put up a strong effort in a three-set loss to Novak Djokovic. However, despite the fact that Hurkacz is the higher-ranked and more accomplished player, there’s a lot of support for Joao Fonseca in the market. That shouldn’t be too surprising considering the Brazilian's immense talent, recent ascent and overall popularity. And it’s certainly not crazy to think the 18-year-old will find a way to win this one.
But there’s nobody forcing you to take a side in this match, and it certainly feels like one that should be server-friendly. So, why not take the Over on the game total?
You can get the Over on a 38.5-game total at -135 odds, and that feels really low for a match that should go at least four sets. Even the most optimistic Fonseca bettors have to be expecting Hurkacz, one of the best servers on the planet, to serve his way to a tiebreaker win at some point. Hurkacz hasn’t quite been himself over the last 52 weeks, as he has battled injuries and struggled to find his top-10 form. But he is still near the top of the ATP leaderboard in hold percentage (88.2%) in that span. And for as good as Fonseca is, he has rarely seen a serve this good. It could take him some time to get a read on it, if he does so at all.
On the other side of things, Fonseca has a booming serve and Hurkacz has a break percentage of just 15.5% over the last 52 weeks. The Brazilian should be able to work his way deep into sets regularly, too.
Hurkacz has gone Over a total of 38.5 games in six of his last seven matches in Paris, and I don’t see that streak ending in what should be a tightly-contested battle with one of the sport’s up-and-coming stars. While a ton of people are high on Fonseca’s chances of winning here, the only reason I see this going Under is if the Brazilian can’t put his recent struggles behind him to perform at a high level, on a big stage. But I don’t see that happening. I think both of these guys show up, providing us with an early-round banger.
Pick: Over 38.5 Games (-135)