Roland Garros Betting Preview: Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Frances Tiafoe

On Wednesday, May 28, Frances Tiafoe will look to advance to the third round at Roland Garros for just the second time in his career. The American will be taking on Pablo Carreno Busta in the final match of the day on Court 7.

Tiafoe isn’t known as much of a clay-court player, but he has to be feeling like this is a real opportunity for him to experience a career-best result in Paris. Taylor Fritz, the top-seeded player in his quarter, was upset by Daniel Altmaier in the first round, meaning there’s a big opening in the draw. If Tiafoe can get through the Spaniard, a trip to the quarterfinals is well within reason.

Carreno Busta does have a strong clay-court resume, as he’s 116-93 on the surface and is 21-11 in 32 career matches at Roland Garros. He has been to the quarterfinals of this event twice. However, injuries have killed the 33-year-old’s momentum over the last few years, which is why he’s ranked 99th in the world. Carreno Busta is just 3-8 since the start of the 2025 season, and poor returning and unsteady baseline play are the main culprits. That’s why Tiafoe should be able to get him, even if the American isn’t as comfortable on the dirt.

Tiafoe hasn’t had the greatest season in the world, but I like that the 27-year-old has played 14 matches on clay already. Tiafoe hasn’t always been big on playing a bunch of European clay-court events, but he got himself right overseas after losing in the final on the green clay in Houston. That extra time on the surface could make the difference in a match like this.

Carreno Busta might be move more fluidly than Tiafoe on clay, but that might be the only huge advantage he has over the American. Both of these guys have strong serves, powerful baseline games and great feel at the net. But overall, Tiafoe is in slightly better form coming into this match. He’s also in better shape than his opponent, and his edge in athleticism should make up for Carreno Busta being a better slider.

It was undoubtedly impressive that Carreno Busta was able to quickly dispose of Francisco Comesana in the first round, as the Argentine has been one of this year’s breakout players. But it’s hard to imagine Carreno Busta’s body holding up in multiple best-of-five matches at this point in his career, even with a few days off. So, even if this ends up being closer than anticipated, Tiafoe should be able to dig deep and grind out a win in the fifth set.

Pick: Tiafoe ML (-175)