Roland Garros Betting Preview: Sofia Kenin vs. Madison Keys

On Saturday, May 31, Australian Open champion Madison Keys will look to keep her bid for a second major alive when she takes on Sofia Kenin at Roland Garros. Both of these players are coming off impressive second-round victories, as Keys beat Katie Boulter 6-1, 6-3 and Kenin beat Victoria Azarenka 7-6 (5), 6-4. Now, we’re set for an All-American clash between two ball bashers, and I like the 26-year-old to make this a match. That’s why Kenin +1.5 sets is the pick.

These two have met four times in their careers, and Keys is 3-1, with three consecutive victories. However, the one win for Kenin came in their lone clay-court meeting. That was way back in 2019, when Kenin beat Keys 6-7 (2), 6-3, 6-4 in Rome.

Realistically, you can probably throw out all of the head-to-head stuff with these two, as they haven’t met since 2022. However, if you want to make the case that Keys has an edge, you might want to look at how close the three hard-court matches were. Then, you should think about how similar the conditions are at Rome and Roland Garros.

In many ways, these two players are very similar. Keys is definitely a better server when she’s on, but they’re both extremely powerful and like to end rallies quickly. They’re also dangerous returners because of how big they tend to go with their groundstrokes. Kenin's biggest weakness can be her footwork, but playing in slower conditions will give her more time to set her feet—and once she does, she’ll be able to swing big at small targets. If she’s hitting those targets, Keys’ movement won’t be good enough to consistently get rallies back to neutral.

For this bet, we just need to hope that Keys isn’t scorching hot as a server. The Keys second serve is extremely exploitable, and getting a decent amount of looks at that is Kenin’s best pathway to victory. And while we might only be looking for Kenin to win a single set here, this is absolutely a match in which a moneyline sprinkle is a consideration.

Kenin has definitely had some bad moments this year, with a 6-0, 6-0 loss to Coco Gauff in Miami being the one that stands out. She also completely imploded in a loss to Jessica Pegula in the Charleston final. But Kenin has also won nine of the 13 clay-court matches she has played this year, and she won at least a set in three of the losses. She’s back and capable of competing with anyone, including Keys.

Pick: Kenin +1.5 Sets (-125)