Roland Garros men's preview: Can anyone make Jannik Sinner feel the pressure in Paris?

Once upon a time, having an overwhelming favorite in the men’s field was the norm at Roland Garros. For nearly 20 years, Rafael Nadal was that person. Now, for the first time since Rafa’s heyday ended in 2022, we have that scenario again.

As this year’s edition of the tournament begins, Jannik Sinner is all alone at the top. He’s not the King of Clay and probably never will be, but he has had a Rafa-like spring, winning all three Masters 1000s on dirt, in Monte Carlo, Madrid, and Rome, each for the first time. It didn’t hurt that his biggest rival, Carlos Alcaraz, was absent for the last two of those, as he will be in Paris.

To me, that leaves us with two headline questions: Can Sinner withstand the pressure of knowing that his first Roland Garros title is virtually in his grasp? And can anyone dangerous enough to give him a run—Novak Djokovic, Arthur Fils, Rafael Jodar, maybe Medvedev or Zverev—last long enough to face him, and give him a jolt of nerves?

Here’s a quarter by quarter look at the men’s draw.

First Quarter

At this point, Sinner doesn’t need any help from the draw gods, but they appear to have been kind to him anyway. Four of the players who could conceivably give him a run here—Djokovic, Rafael Jodar, Arthur Fils, and Joao Fonseca—are in the opposite half. The second-highest seed in his quarter is Ben Shelton; Sinner is 9-1 against him. The first two seeds he could face are Corentin Moutet and Luciano Darderi; he’s 3-0 against them combined.

But there are a couple of players to at least keep an eye on. In the third round Sinner might play Martin Landaluce, a promising 20-year-old Spaniard who made the quarters in Rome. Later, he could run up against Alexander Bublik, one of the few men who owns a win over Sinner in the last 12 months. But the always-unpredictable Bublik would have to make it to the quarters to take his shot.

First-round matches to watch:

Matteo Berrettini vs. Marton Fuscsovics

Hubert Hurkacz vs. Jaume Munar

Frances Tiafoe vs. fellow American Eliot Spizziri

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Alexandre Muller

Semifinalist: Sinner

Second Quarter

What should we think of Daniil Medvedev’s chances?

There are reasons to like them. He’s having a bounce-back season, with a 24-8 record. He made the semis in Rome. He pushed Sinner to two tiebreakers in the Indian Wells final.

But there are reasons not to like them. Or at least one reason: He’s prone to leaving Paris early. Very early. In his nine trips to Roland Garros, he’s lost in the first round six times, including in 2025. Medvedev will need to be ready sooner if he’s going to change that this year. He has some quality opponents near him, including Franscisco Cerundolo, Flavio Cobolli, Valentin Vacherot, and his old friend Learner Tien.

Still, Medvedev seems like a better bet to make the semis than the other top seed in this section, Felix Auger Aliassime. The Canadian is just 4-4 during the clay swing.

Dark Horse: Vacherot. The 16th-seeded Monagasque, who made the semis at home in Monte Carlo last month, seems built for best-of-five on clay

Farewell: Gael Monfils. The French legend will start his swan song event against countryman Hugo Gaston. There will be cheers and tears, and probably everything in between.

First-round match to watch:

Marin Cilic vs. 17-year-old French hopeful Moise Kouame

Semifinalist: Medvedev

Third Quarter

Last year, Djokovic took an extended good-bye bow in front of the fans at Roland Garros, then said it might be his last trip there. But here he is again, turning 39 as we speak, and ready to try it again. I’m guessing that any doubts he had about entering went away when Alcaraz announced he wouldn’t be here. With his absence, the Serb must feel like his chances at a record 25th major title are 50 percent better. Now there’s only one definite obstacle—Sinner—in his path.

Can Djokovic get to him? He has played a grand total of one match on clay this year, a three-set loss to an opponent outside the Top 50. But even at his age, Djokovic is still a different animal at the Slams. He made the semis of all four of them last year, and the final at the Australian Open this year.

That said, he’ll have to work. He starts against French ace machine Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, could play Fonseca in the third round, two-time finalist Casper Ruud in the fourth, and Alex de Minaur in the quarters.

Of those opponents, Ruud, who made the final in Rome, looms the largest. Djokovic is 5-1 against him, but Ruud won their most recent match, on clay in 2024. If they do play, the winner might be the favorite to make the final.

Early-round matches to watch:

Djokovic vs. Mpetshi Perricard (1st round)

De Minaur vs. Alexander Blockx (2nd round)

Semifinalist: Ruud

Fourth Quarter

Like Djokovic, Alexander Zverev must feel like his task is half as difficult at Roland Garros this time. Without Alcaraz, only Sinner is ranked above him, and he won’t meet him until the final. Since the start of 2025, the German is 0-8 against Sinner, but he has been consistently good against everyone else in this field.

Still, there are also a couple of land mines in his quarter. Youthful ones.

The first is Arthur Fils, the French favorite who has the game to make the final, and will have the crowd to help push him there. But a few caveats: He retired in Rome with a hip issue; he could have a tricky start against the ultimate veteran, and former champ here, Stan Wawrinka; and he’s 2-5 vs. Zverev.

The second dark horse in this section is Rafael Jodar, the 19-year-old Spaniard who has raced up the rankings this spring. His draw, which includes a potentially rusty Taylor Fritz, looks good through a possible fourth-rounder with Jiri Lehecka.

First-round matches to watch:

Fils vs. Wawrinka

Jodar vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic

Semifinalist: Fils

Semifinals: Sinner d. Medvedev; Fils d. Ruud

Final: Sinner d. Fils