Roland Garros Previews: Sabalenka vs. Badosa, Keys vs. Navarro, Djokovic vs. Musetti

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Paula Badosa

Sabalenka and Badosa, who are both 26, who both made runs up the rankings three years ago, and who are good friends to boot, know each other’s games well. They’ve played six times since 2001; Sabalenka has won the last four of those matches.

The oddity of their head-to-head is that they’ve faced off three times in Stuttgart, including at this year’s edition of that indoor clay event. Sabalenka has won all three, but each time it has been close. In 2022, the score was 7-6 (5), 6-4. In 2023, it was 6-4 in the third. In 2023, the score was 3-3 in the third when Badosa had to retire. It’s clear that the Spaniard can stay with her on German clay.

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How about French clay? And Grand Slam clay? That might be a tougher ask. Badosa, who is still digging herself out of a two-year, injury-filled slump, has won two close three-setters this week. Sabalenka, meanwhile, has rolled through her opening rounds easily; gone, it seems, are the off-days and nervy performances that once plagued her early in majors. It has been two years since she failed to reach the semis or better at a Slam.

Both women hit with pace and weight, but Sabalenka does it with a little more of both. Winner: Sabalenka

Madison Keys vs. Emma Navarro

At the start of the tournament, I asked who might derail a third straight final between No. 1 seed Iga Swiatek and No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka. On Wednesday, Naomi Osaka was one point from knocking out Swiatek. If there’s anyone who looks like she might be able to challenge Sabalenka in the same way, it would seem to be Keys. The American made the semis in Madrid, the quarters in Rome (where she lost to Swiatek), and won a title last week in Strasbourg. If she wins this match, and Sabalenka wins hers, they’ll meet in the fourth round.

Read More: Swiatek, Sabalenka...Keys? Red-hot Madison is making a major mark on clay

First things first, of course. Keys needs to get past her fellow American and Billie Jean King Cup teammate Navarro. As it happens, she’s also playing well. She made the final of a Roland Garros tune-up event in Paris, she won her first two rounds at RG easily, and has been one of the most improved WTA players of 2024. One of the busiest, too—she’s 32-12 on the year.

Keys and Navarro have played twice, both times in 2023, and each won once; Keys was a straight-set victor on clay in Charleston. Navarro is a better player than she was then, but this version of Keys may still be too much for her to handle. Winner: Keys

Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti

The Serb and the Italian are building something of a history together. This will be their sixth meeting, and some of them have been memorable. In 2021, Djokovic lost the first two sets before tearing through the last three—Musetti was unable even to finish the fifth. Two years later, Musetti got his first win over Djokovic, in Monte Carlo, and broke down in tears. Last month, on the same court, Djokovic reversed that result, but it was still competitive.

Now they’ll square off for a night session in Chatrier. Each has played on stage once already this week, and each won in straight sets. Djokovic is the favorite in this one for obvious reasons, but if Musetti can generate some early momentum, and show off some of the stylish shot-making for which he’s known, he’ll have the crowd with him. And that will likely agitate Djokovic, who tends to get irritable during the evenings here. Winner: Djokovic