Wimbledon Day 1 preview: Naomi Osaka makes SW19 return; Coco Gauff, Matteo Berrettini headline opening day

Sabalenka will face her first seed and first potential challenge of the tournament. I thought that challenge would come from another American, Madison Keys. But Navarro, who beat Keys on Saturday, may be the tougher, or at least the trickier, opponent.

Sabalenka and Navarro have played once, at Indian Wells earlier this year, and Navarro won in three sets. She did it with superior consistency, but also with an understated arsenal of spins, angles, trajectories, and counter-punches. Navarro knows her way around the green clay of the U.S. South, and the red stuff in Chatrier should be to her liking as well.

But Sabalenka has been liking it a lot herself lately. She has been playing much better during the clay swing than she was on the hard courts in the States, and she seems ready to make her first final at Roland Garros. Having the patience and tactical skills to get past Navarro will be a good test. Winner: Sabalenka

Sabalenka and Navarro have played once, at Indian Wells earlier this year, and Navarro won in three sets.

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Alexander Zverev vs. Holger Rune

This deserves its Chatrier night-session assignment, because we’re overdue for a match between these two. The last one came in 2022, in Munich; that day a teenage Rune gave us an idea of what he was capable of by knocking off the home-country favorite 6-3, 6-2.

Two years later, Zverev is ranked No. 4 and Rune No. 13. Zverev has had a strong season; his self-belief had to be high in his last match, when he came back from 1-4 down in the fifth to beat Tallon Griekspoor. Rune has been hit and miss for much of 2024, a trend that has continued on clay this spring. But he also showed an incredible will to win by coming back from well behind in a fifth-set tiebreaker to beat Flavio Cobolli in the second round.

Zverev is the superior player, and he’ll make life difficult for Rune with his mix of serve power and ground-stroke grind. But Rune likes a stage, and a crowd to rouse and fight against. He’ll have enough game to make it interesting. But does he have enough to win three sets? He would have to get hot, and stay hot. Winner: Zverev

The last American man standing at Roland Garros, Fritz has shown that his serve-plus-one style can work on clay. Can he pull off the upset against Ruud?

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Casper Ruud vs. Taylor Fritz

Like Zverev and Rune, these two have played just once, back in 2022 at the ATP Finals. It was a superb match, which Ruud won 8-6 in a third-set tiebreaker on an indoor hard court

Ruud should have more of an advantage on outdoor clay—assuming the rain finally holds off in Paris. He has had a good spring, making the final in Monte Carlo, winning Barcelona, and positioning himself for a third run to the Roland Garros final. But Fritz has held up well in Europe this year, too, making the semis in Madrid. Each has survived a five-set scare so far in Paris: Ruud against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Fritz vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis.

Fritz has shown that his serve-plus-one style can work on clay. But Ruud’s whole game, and in particular his heavy-topspin forehand, is better-built for dirt. Winner: Ruud

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