Roland Garros women’s preview: A core four emerges in Paris, but Coco Gauff may still hold the edge

There are Grand Slam draws with heavy favorites. There are others where anyone can conceivably win. And then there are the in between majors—and they may be the best—where a coterie of three or four or five players form a ruling elite. The 2026 Roland Garros women’s event seems to be the latter.

Aryna Sabalenka is No. 1, and was last year's runner-up. Elena Rybakina is No. 2, and she won the Australian Open. Iga Swiatek is No. 3, and she’s a four-time winner here. Coco Gauff is No. 4, and the defending champion. None of them won a title in Madrid or Rome this month, but they still comprise a core four of contenders. They’ll be joined by a few dark horses, including the two players who did win those titles, Elina Svitolina and Marta Kostyuk, as well as Mirra Andreeva, Jessica Pegula, and Karolina Muchova.

If we’re looking for a tournament that’s not too predictable, but not too random, that seems like a good starting point. Let’s see how the draw shook out.

Read More: 2026 Roland Garros Women’s Draw: Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff projected for semifinal clash

First Quarter

Sabalenka is still at the top of the hill, but you wouldn’t say she is in a commanding position as she arrives in Paris. She lost to Hailey Baptiste in Madrid, and Sorana Cirstea in Rome, and she’s still looking for her first title at Roland Garros after several heartbreaks.

But maybe that’s not a bad position for her. The last time Sabalenka won a major, at the US Open in 2025, she didn’t look great coming in. And she hasn’t always fared well late in Slams when she’s been the overwhelming favorite.

Her draw seems manageable, too. She’ll start with Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, who should be a suitable first-round test. She could play Naomi Osaka in the round of 16; they’ve met twice already this spring, and Sabalenka has won both. In the quarters, if the seeds hold, she’ll get No. 5 seed Jessica Pegula, She’s 9-3 against the American, but their recent matches have been close.

First-round matches to watch:

Iva Jovic vs. Alex Eala

Naomi Osaka vs. Laura Siegemund

🔸 Semifinalist: Sabalenka

Second Quarter

It was a long slog, and required three three-set wins and two comebacks from the brink, but Coco Gauff appeared to work herself back into top form by the time she reached the Rome final this past weekend.

Does that mean she’s ready to defend her crown at Roland Garros? She’ll be happy to have nabbed the No. 4 seed, which keeps her away from Sabalenka, Swiatek, and Rybakina until the semis. But she may not be looking forward to facing fellow American Taylor Townsend in the first round. They’ve played once, in Charleston back in 2019, and Townsend won.

The other seeds here include Amanda Anisimova, Elise Mertens, and Linda Noskova, who beat Coco in Madrid. But the one closest to her, Anastasia Potapova, may be the toughest of all right now. She has been much improved over the past month, and has the weapons to push Gauff around.

Unseeded: Zheng Qinwen. She could play Mertens in the second round.

Encore Performance: Lois Boisson. The Frenchwoman made the semis a year ago. This time she’ll start against Anna Kalinskaya.

🔸 Semifinalist: Gauff

Third Quarter

Swiatek was looking like the Iga of old for much of Rome, as she dominated Osaka and Pegula to make the semis. But just as another clay title started to look inevitable, she was ambushed by an implacable Svitolina.

Will that leave Swiatek feeling confident, or vulnerable? If she’s looked ahead at her draw, she may have tipped toward the latter. She could be on a third-round collision course with her longtime nemesis, Jelena Ostapenko; the Latvian is 6-0 against her.

After that, it might not get easier. Waiting in the fourth round could be Kostyuk, the Madrid Champ. And waiting in the quarters could be Svitolina, the Rome champ.

🔸 Semifinalist: Svitolina

Fourth Quarter

Like Sabalenka, Rybakina has seen some of her early-season momentum dissipate at the clay 1000s. After winning in Stuttgart, she went out in the round of 16 in Madrid and the quarters in Rome. She has also never been past the quarters at Roland Garros.

With a No. 2 seeding and a 2026 Slam already in her pocket, this would seem to be the year she changes that. Her draw is not without its potential obstacles: Andreeva, Muchova, Cirstea, Baptitse, and Jasmine Paolini are here. An Andreeva-Rybakina quarterfinal would be interesting: They’re 2-2.

First-round matches to watch:

Hailey Baptiste vs. Barbora Krejcikova, the 2021 champ

Jasmine Paolini vs. Dayana Yastremska

🔸 Semifinalist: Rybakina

Semifinals: Gauff d. Sabalenka; Rybakina d. Svitolina

🏆 Final: Gauff d. Rybakina