Rome Betting Preview: Jasmine Paolini vs. Coco Gauff

Jasmine Paolini has a chance to do something very special on Saturday, May 17, when she’ll look to win her second 1000-level event in her home country. The Italian has already accomplished a lot in this sport, making two Grand Slam finals last year and earning a spot in the WTA’s Top 10. But winning the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in front of her friends, family and fans might take the cake.

Of course, beating Coco Gauff in the final is going to be tough. The American went all the way to the final in Madrid, where she beat Mirra Andreeva and Iga Swiatek before falling against Aryna Sabalenka in her last match. And she has picked up where she left off in Rome, beating Andreeva for a second time in two weeks and also knocking out Qinwen Zheng in a late-night marathon.

I’m not sure Paolini will ultimately get herself across the finish line, as Gauff is the sport’s ultimate competitor and tends to find ways to win tight matches. We saw that in her semifinal against Zheng. It was a rather sloppy match, as Gauff racked up 15 double faults and 82 unforced errors. But she was able to still outlast Zheng, and finding ways to win ugly is a skill.

Having said that, the fact that it was that ugly does bode well for Paolini.

Gauff made only 56.9% of her first serves against Zheng, and her double-fault percentage was up at 11.1%. That’s the second time in five matches that Gauff has double faulted at least once out of every 10 service points. If she can’t clean that up, Paolini is going to take advantage. Over the last 52 weeks, Paolini has the highest clay-court break percentage on the WTA Tour, at 51.6%. Paolini just needs to find a way to serve well herself, as it’s Gauff that’s second on that list at 49.7%.

The crowd should also be a factor. Paolini will definitely be nervous looking to win the biggest title of her career at home, but if she gets comfortable, the support could be significant. Meanwhile, Gauff is a player that rarely has the crowd against her, and she can get down on herself in certain situations. Will the raucous atmosphere in Rome get to her?

Paolini beat Gauff 6-4, 6-3 in Stuttgart last month, and that was the second time in three meetings that the Italian won at least a set against the American. And considering the conditions were very similar to those in Rome, I don’t see any reason Paolini can’t win at least one set.

Pick: Paolini +1.5 Sets (-143)