Rome Betting Preview: Reilly Opelka vs. Learner Tien

When you think of dream clay-court match-ups, you’re probably not picturing a battle between two Americans. Well, I’m going to ask you to open your minds for Thursday’s Pick of the Day at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, as I’m riding with Reilly Opelka to beat Learner Tien in the first round.

In theory, Tien should be a dangerous clay-court player. He’s cerebral in the way he plays from the back of the cour: he rarely makes errors, has deadly accuracy with his groundstrokes and often finds impressive angles. Tien is also a backboard along the baseline. It’s very difficult to get the ball by him, and he’s great at redirecting pace.

But Tien is 0-4 on clay at the ATP level. Also, for as good as he was at the Challenger level, he never prioritized playing on clay. So, while his game might seem like a good fit for the dirt, he hasn’t had time to get comfortable on it. He was demolished by Alex Michelsen in Houston, and he lost to wild card Gastao Elias in his first match in last week’s Estoril Challenger.

At the moment, I just don’t think Tien has the strength required to consistently finish rallies in slower conditions. He also has a problematic second serve, which makes him a little too easy to break when the ball is bouncing high and sitting for returners. Also, for as good of a mover as he is, there’s a difference between moving on hard courts and moving on clay. Sliding is a skill that players need to work on.

With all of that in mind, I like Opelka’s chances of winning this match. Sure, he isn’t the greatest mover in the world, and his first serve is going to be a little easier for Tien to return in Rome than it would be elsewhere. But Opelka has actually had success in Rome before. In 2021, he beat Richard Gasquet, Lorenzo Musetti, Aslan Karatsev and Federico Delbonis on his way to the semifinals, where he put up a decent fight in a 6-4, 6-4 loss to Rafael Nadal. Opelka’s serve is dangerous in any conditions, as it’s borderline unreturnable when he’s hitting his spots. Also, Opelka likes the slower conditions along the baseline, as these court speeds give him the time he needs to track down more balls.

The only thing I’m a little concerned about with Opelka is that he retired in his match against Ignacio Buse in a Challenger he played in France last week. Opelka was experiencing some discomfort in his hip, and that has been a problematic area for him in the past. But I’m just hoping that was a bit precautionary and that Opelka just wanted to make sure he’d be right in Rome. If he is, this is a match he really should win. And honestly, even if he isn’t, there’s a chance he’ll retire in the opening set and bets will be voided.

Pick: Opelka ML (-105)