Sabalenka vs. Osaka, Sinner vs. Fonseca: Who will win at Indian Wells?

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka

⏰ Estimated start time: 2:00 p.m. ET

👉 Stream live on the Tennis Channel app

“I remember thinking, like, we’re both going to get very far,” Osaka said when she was asked about her only other meeting with Sabalenka, which took place at the 2018 US Open.

Osaka was right, of course, but for a time it looked like her close win that evening in Louis Armstrong Stadium had given her a permanent edge in their race toward the top. She would win four majors in the next three years and reach No. 1, while Sabalenka took the long way up the mountaintop. By the time she reached the summit, Osaka’s career has cratered.

Now the roles have reversed, and it’s Osaka who is chasing Sabalenka’s No. 1 ranking. After a couple of frustrating comeback years, she’s back up to No. 16, and she’s playing the event where she made her first breakthrough title run as a teenager, also in 2018. All in all, it’s not a bad time and place for Osaka to get her first crack at Sabalenka, and restart a rivalry that never came to be.

Sabalenka says it’s an occasion she’s looking forward to: “A fashion show at the beginning, then a crazy match. She’s a great player.”

Together, Sabalenka and Osaka raised the power bar in women’s tennis when they appeared in the late-2010s, and nobody has raised it higher since. This will be a battle of first strikes, from serve to return to forehand to backhand. Osaka is one of the few players who can match Sabalenka’s pace, which tends to rattle her. The question is whether she can match her margin for error, too. Sabalenka hits with more shape, and thus more safety, on her serve and her forehand in particular.

That might allow Sabalenka to wait out any hot streaks from Osaka, and wait until a cold one comes around. Winner: Sabalenka

Alexander Zverev vs. Frances Tiafoe

⏰ Estimated start time: 4:00 p.m. ET

👉 Stream live on the Tennis Channel app

“Some matches you work for,” Tiafoe says of the prospect of facing Zverev in the round of 16 at a Masters 1000. “It’s great.”

After an off year in 2025, the American, with new coach Mark Kovacs, has been climbing his way back toward matches and moments like this. He made the final last week in Acapulco, and a quarterfinal before that in Delray. Kovacs is a specialist in biomechanics, and he has clearly brought a new awareness, and a renewed swagger, to Tiafoe’s game and mindset.

He also seems energized by the faster courts in Indian Wells this year.

You see my last two matches? It was damn great. I’m happy. I’m happy the courts are a little faster. Frances Tiafoe after blitzing Flavio Cobolli, 6-1, 6-2

Is the new Tiafoe ready to take another step up and knock off Zverev, too? The German sounds happy with his game as well; not so much about any results, but about his recent commitment to play with more aggression and risk. While he barely squeaked past Brandon Nakashima 6-4 in the third on Sunday, he’ll feel confident in his chances against Tiafoe. He leads their head-to-head 8-1, and hasn’t lost to him since 2017.

“He’s one of the better servers out here, so the biggest thing is to take care of my score and put scoreboard pressure,” Tiafoe says of Zverev.

“I think the past results don’t really have effect. Just go out and believe in it and execute.” Winner: Tiafoe

Amanda Anisimova vs. Victoria Mboko

⏰ Estimated start time: 9:00 p.m. ET

👉 Stream live on the Tennis Channel app

Both women are in the Top 10. Both had meteoric rises and memorable victories in 2025. Both have made themselves crowd favorites. Both had a good run last month—Mboko to the Doha final, Anisimova to the Dubai semis—and would seem to be in form. Now they’ll meet for the first time.

Their technique is very different, but there are similarities in their shot selection. Each loves her two-handed backhand, each loves to send it to into the corners with maximum pace, and neither has a problem taking it down the line. At 5’11, Anisimova is an inch taller than Mboko, and she has the more imposing serve.

So far in Indian Wells, Mboko hasn’t dropped a set, while Anisimova has surrendered one. But I wonder if that will help the American. She was ambushed in the first set of her opener by a fired-up Anna Blinkova. But that splash of cold water woke Anisimova up, and she has dropped just three games in the four sets she’s played since.

For a player with Anisimova’s ball-striking skill, that’s the kind of roll that could sweep Mboko away, too. Winner: Anisimova

Jannik Sinner vs. Joao Fonseca

⏰ Estimated start time: 9:00 p.m. ET

👉 Stream live on the Tennis Channel app

“It’s a really big thing to play against those guys,” Fonseca says of facing top-tier opponents like Sinner and his rival Carlos Alcaraz. “I’m gonna enjoy playing out there…try to enjoy as much as possible to see where my game is.”

Having fun, testing yourself, reveling in the moment: This would seem to be an ideal way to begin your first encounter with the world No. 2. It might even help Fonseca, a 19-year-old Brazilian whose forehand is a match for anyone’s on tour, get off to a fast start and rev up his many excitable fans. If so, the question will be: What does he do then? Is he ready to handle a lead over Sinner, and the pressure that will suddenly come with it?

After enduring injuries and a second-half slump in 2025, the teenager is back on the hunt again. He saved a match point to beat 16th-seeded Karen Khachanov, then followed it with a 6-2, 6-3 rout of 23rd seed Tommy Paul in front of a pro-American crowd. In that win, his game looked as electric as it had when he broke onto the tour a year ago. While Sinner feeds on pace, he may not enjoy the amount that Fonseca gives him.

Still, he will probably find a way to handle it, and send back even more of his own. Sinner has had a disappointing season by his standards, but he loves hard courts, and he hasn’t dropped a set in two matches. With Alcaraz firmly on top, and with no points to defend in Indian Wells, he may also feel like he doesn’t have all that much to lose right now, either. Winner: Sinner