Sunshine Symposium: Which American will play best in Indian Wells and Miami?

With the Sunshine Swing about to get underway—the 2024 BNP Paribas Open draw is set to be revealed on Monday, March 4—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions heading into Indian Wells and Miami.

Next up: Which American player will enjoy the strongest results in March?

STEVE TIGNOR: Coco Gauff is the highest-ranked U.S. player, and she seems due for a big result. Last year, she broke out on U.S. hard courts by winning titles in D.C., Cincinnati and New York, but she has yet to do the same on the similar surfaces, and in front of the similarly supportive crowds, in Indian Wells or Miami. While she wasn’t at her best in Doha or Dubai, Gauff did make the semifinals at the Australian Open. It’s hard to imagine her challenging for both titles, but with her consistent motivation level, winning one of them is within her power.

ED MCGROGAN: Ben Shelton’s expectations have risen, but they aren’t so high that anything but a title is deemed a failure. After what he showed at the US Open, it’s reasonable to expect he could do something similar, if not greater, at two other big U.S. hard-court tournaments. The 21-year-old has the potential to serve his way past anyone, and even if he goes far at Indian Wells, the former Florida Gator will be chomping at the bit in Miami.

JOEL DRUCKER: Coco Gauff took her game to new heights in 2023 and has built on that momentum nicely to start ’24, most notably with a title in Auckland and a semifinal run at the Australian Open. Over the last eight months, no American—man or woman—has come close to matching Gauff’s results. My belief is that she’ll be sharp all month long at both hard-court events, be it grinding out long rallies when necessary or using her serve, backhand, and tactical versatility to close out points. One vital skill-building factor that fellow Americans should take note of: Gauff’s frequent participation in doubles. Surely, that’s helped her become increasingly comfortable in all parts of the court.

DAVID KANE: I'm going to zag and predict a zany month from cult favorite Danielle Collins. The American announced that 2024 would be her final season on tour and she appears determined to go out with a bang, already pushing world No. 1 Iga Swiatek to three sets at the Australian Open and reaching a quarterfinal in Doha. Despite her busy schedule, Collins has remained effervescent off-court, a sign that her announcement has taken the pressure off her high-octane game—and that the field should watch out for this dangerous floater and former No. 7.

LIYA DAVIDOV: There are three main distinctions between Tommy Paul and other top-ranked American men: maturity, distinction and variety. He takes the court with certainty, trusting in the work he’s put into his game, strategy and understanding of the sport. The confidence is well-matched with his ego, as it doesn’t psych him out from challenges ahead. Unlike Ben Shelton, whose maturity still has yet to be honed, and Frances Tiafoe, whose distinction lacks authority, and Taylor Fritz, whose one-dimensional game only effects certain types of players, Paul’s game is capable of adapting in real time. The other three have each respectively earned their spotlight in tournaments past, and Paul knows that a competitive showing at the Sunshine Swing will earn him respect as one of the top Americans to watch out for.

STEPHANIE LIVAUDAIS: Could a coaching change be just what Jessica Pegula needs to take the next step in her career? The American has famously reached six Grand Slam quarterfinals but failed to advance each time, peaking at world No. 3 in the rankings. The Sunshine Swing will be the first real test of Pegula’s new partnership with Mark Knowles and Mark Merklein, having parted ways with longtime coach David Witt in February. Luckily the 30-year-old will feel right at home at one of her favorite tournaments in Miami, where she has reached back-to-back semifinals and last year won the doubles title with Coco Gauff.

MATT FITZGERALD: Sebastian Korda missed both events last year when he was recovering from a right wrist injury. With nothing to worry about on the points front, the 23-year-old should be able to swing more freely at these two top stops. If he can get something going at Indian Wells, that should set him up well in Miami where he can tap into his Florida roots—and he has a prior quarterfinal showing to his name. Let's hope his Dubai quarterfinal retirement was more precautionary than anything.

JON LEVEY: Perhaps it’s a cop out to take the highest-ranked option, but Coco Gauff has won her last 16 matches on U.S. soil. She didn’t fare too well in her post-Australian Open swing through the Middle East, but she’ll be eager to wash that taste out of her mouth. With home being just up I-95 in Delray Beach, Gauff should be particularly motivated to make some noise in Miami.

PETE BODO: Frances Tiafoe is in the midst of a reset following a coaching change that has produced only mixed results thus far, but he’s a respectable 23-13 during the upcoming swing. Tommy Paul has been solid, winning in Dallas, and he’s a decent 13-7 overall in the Sunshine Double. Ben Shelton, a newbie, has only played three matches, losing two, in Miami and Indian Wells. Sebastian Korda is 8-4 cumulatively.

Then there’s Taylor Fritz. The winner in the desert in 2022, he was solid last year, stopped by Jannik Sinner in the quarters. In Miami, he had wins over Denis Shapovalov and Holger Rune before he was beaten, also in the quarters, by Carlos Alcaraz. With a cumulative 30-14 record in the two events and with wins over numerous quality players, Fritz will continue as the standard bearer for the US men.