Sunshine Symposium: Will we see an Indian Wells-Miami double on the ATP or WTA tour?

With the Sunshine Swing about to get underway —the 2024 BNP Paribas Open draw is set to be revealed on Monday, March 4—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions heading into Indian Wells and Miami.

Next up: Which tour is more likely to post a Sunshine Double: the ATP or the WTA?

STEVE TIGNOR: The ATP tour is deep. It has been seven years since a male player—Novak Djokovic—did the Double. And Swiatek, Sabalenka or even Rybakina are a threat to do it this year on the women’s side. But right now, it’s just as easy to imagine Djokovic, Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, or Daniil Medvedev—who nearly won both events last year—pulling it off. It takes quality and motivation to win the Double, but there’s a lot of both at the top of the men’s game right now.

JOEL DRUCKER: Some years the answer tilts heavily in the direction of a particular tour.In 2024, there are significant contenders from both the ATP and WTA.  But I’ll tilt a bit more towards the ATP. Novak Djokovic, competing at Indian Wells and Miami for the first time in five years, is eager to make yet another major statement. Carlos Alcaraz has won each event, so why not snap up both in the same year? Jannik Sinner has blossomed into a Grand Slam champion and possesses exceptional skills for success at both tournaments. Daniil Medvedev is right in the mix, while others such as Alexander Zverev, Holger Rune, and Andrey Rublev hold hope that March might be the time for a big breakthrough effort.

DAVID KANE: Swiatek was the last player to sweep the Sunshine Swing and the world No. 1 has looked plenty capable to pull off another streak after nearly going back-to-back in Doha and Dubai. Even if she doesn't pull it off, the WTA has more than a couple players who can catch fire: Aryna Sabalenka began the season all but undefeated in Australia, and posted strong results in Indian Wells and Miami last year. And lest we forget: Elena Rybakina came within two sets of the Sunshine Double last year, losing the Miami final to Petra Kvitova. With the gap between the women's Big 4 (Hello, Coco Gauff!) getting bigger, it's entirely plausible to see another Double in March.

STEPHANIE LIVAUDAIS: We’re slightly more likely to see a Sunshine Double from the ATP Tour, with Djokovic and Sinner being the top two possible back-to-back champions. Having yet to win a title in 2024, Djokovic will have even more motivation to achieve the feat for the fourth time—he won both Indian Wells and Miami in 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Australian Open champion Sinner, meanwhile, has made a 12-0 start to the season and looks set to extend the streak after dropping just one set en route to victory in Rotterdam.

MATT FITZGERALD: I’m inclined to tip this in the WTA’s favor. If not Iga Swiatek or Elena Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka is a verified candidate if she plays anywhere near her level in January. The runner-up at Indian Wells last year, Sabalenka is due to make some noise in her adopted home city of Miami (yet to advance past the quarterfinals). And let’s not forget Coco Gauff won the most recent pair of “big” tournaments held in the states when she went back-to-back at 2023 Cincinnati and the US Open.

ED MCGROGAN: The ATP Top 4 is separated by just 1,840 ranking points. Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka, meanwhile, have practically lapped the WTA field. Both are masters of hard-court tennis and, if on a heater, are capable of doing this double. And if not them, can we really put it past Coco Gauff to reprise the Summer of Coco in the spring?

JON LEVEY: The smart money is clearly on neither. In addition to the difficulty of winning back-to-back tournaments with loaded draws, the Indian Wells winner will often more or less punt on Miami. History says there’s a greater likelihood it will happen in the ATP, but recent data points to the WTA; Iga Swiatek was the last to pull it off in 2022 and Elena Rybakina was just one match away last year. With that in mind, being a prisoner of the moment is the call and we’ll say the needle is pointing—slightly—in the direction of the WTA.

PETE BODO: ATP. Novak Djokovic may not have anything left to prove, career-wise, but don’t for a moment imagine that he’s traveled to the U.S. in order to just mail in any old result—or that he isn’t still feeling the sting of those recent losses to new kid on the Grand Slam block, Jannik Sinner. As of this writing, Djokovic is entered in both Masters events.

Even though Djokovic is 36, the running theme through 2023 was that he’s not only in the bloom of good health, but that he has been playing some of the best tennis of his career. His diligence and attention to detail are renowned, and his record during the Sunshine Double is downright scary. He needs just six match wins to break 100, balanced against a paltry 16 losses.

It’s still Djokovic’s world: Sinner, Alcaraz, et al have just been renting.