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World No. 38 Alexander Bublik earned a 5-7, 7-6 (4), 6-0 win over world No. 28 Frances Tiafoe in Eastbourne on June 20. Eleven days later, the two will meet again, with a spot in the Round of 16 at Wimbledon on the line.

This is Tiafoe’s third time making it into the third round at the All England Club in his career, while Bublik has now done so in each of the last two years. However, neither one of these players has advanced further than this at this prestigious event, so there will be a lot at stake in what should be an enticing match-up to watch.

When it comes to the ATP Tour, there aren’t many players that bring as much pure excitement to the sport than these two. Each brings a lot of offensive flair and on-court personality. They each like to play up the crowd and can get fans into their matches with some tantalizing shot-making ability.

But while they may split in those department, this is a match-up that really should favor Bublik to advance.

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Bublik has a perfect style for grass-court play: a booming first serve—which he’ll often dial up on his second serve as well. It has helped him work up to a 17-12 record in tour-level matches on grass. Bublik also moves well for his 6'5" frame, and he’s more than competent from the baseline for a player that is known mostly for his serve.

Considering Bublik’s ability with the ball on his racquet, it’s not likely that he’ll give Tiafoe many chances to break serve. He has an 81% hold percentage in 2022, while Tiafoe’s number is down from 82% in 2021 to 78.2% in 2022. The American has also seen his break percentage go down from 21.3% to 19% this year, which is part of the reason he has just a 50% winning percentage this season.

With all of that in mind, it just seems a little more likely that it’ll be Bublik that sees more opportunities to break his opponent’s serve. And even if he doesn’t, the 25-year-old is the better bet to prevail in tiebreakers, which is rather valuable in a match-up on grass.

All in all, Bublik is just a bit more complete as a player at this point in time, and we just saw him beat Tiafoe two weeks ago. That makes it hard not to see Bublik as a great value to win this one, especially considering he’s barely a betting favorite to win.

The Pick: Bublik To Win (-110)