On Tuesday, world No. 47 Filip Krajinovic and world No. 40 Daniel Evans will clash in the early rounds in Montreal. With so many notable names in action, this match might not be one that people will be flocking to, but it’s a meeting between two rock-solid players—and we see an opportunity to make some money on it.

Loyal readers of The Pick know that we have done really well by targeting matches in which one of the players hasn’t had the opportunity to play on a surface in quite some time. This is another match that fits the bill, with Krajinovic having last played a hard-court match on March 12 (a loss to Gael Monfils at Indian Wells). Since then, the Serbian has played plenty of clay and grass-court tennis, but nothing can get you prepared for ATP-level matches on each surface except for just that: ATP-level matches on each surface.

With Krajinovic having just played a clay-court event in Hamburg after spending all of June on grass, it’s hard not to see Evans as a great value here. The Brit just got three hard-court matches under his belt in Washington, DC, where he earned wins over Kyle Edmund and Taylor Fritz (the American retired when he was down 4-1 in the deciding set). He then suffered an upsetting three-set loss to Yoshihito Nishioka, but that defeat looks a little better after having seen his opponent make it all the way to the D.C. final.




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Evans’ week in the nation’s capital wasn’t anything special, but it was still an opportunity to get himself acclimated to hard-court tennis. And those three matches should give him a significant leg up against Krajinovic, who hasn’t played in over two weeks. All of that is enough for us to overlook Krajinovic’s 2-0 record against Evans. It isn’t hard to see a scenario in which the Serbian comes out a little slow, and isn’t able to recover from a hole he puts himself in.

It should also be noted that Krajinovic has lost three of his last five matches, and can often overhit or rack up unforced errors. Evans, meanwhile, is a smart player who utilizes a lot of off-speed stuff to throw his opponents off. He’s going to put a lot of balls in play, and put a ton of spin on his shots, in order to coax mistakes out of Krajinovic.

This just seems like a good chance for us to bet on a better and more in-form player at decent odds, so we’re not going to overthink it. Let’s jump on the Brit and hope to get our week in Canada off on the right foot.

The Pick: Evans To Win (-120)