World No. 1 Iga Swiatek rolled to a 6-2, 6-1 win over world No. 8 Aryna Sabalenka in the semifinals of the Italian Open on Saturday, and the 20-year-old will now face world No. 7 Ons Jabeur for the title. Jabeur, who earned a 6-4, 1-6, 7-5 win over world No. 23 Daria Kasatkina in her semifinal match, is one of the few players on the WTA Tour that has a winning history against Swiatek. The Tunisian is 2-1 in three career matches with the Polish superstar, and has won their last two meetings.
With Swiatek sitting at -600 to win this match on the moneyline, it’s hard to get on board with backing her in any capacity. The reality of the situation is that it’s very likely that Swiatek will ultimately win her fifth title of 2022 on Sunday, as that is just how far above the rest of the competition she is right now. However, the oddsmakers have priced it as such, making it very difficult to justify a bet on her.