The Pick presented by DraftKings Sportsbook: Sofia Kenin vs. Madison Keys, Australian Open first round

HIGHLIGHTS: Madison Keys tops Alison Riske in the Adelaide final

On Monday, world No. 12 Sofia Kenin takes on former world No. 7 Madison Keys in a first-round match-up at the Australian Open. While Keys is currently ranked only 51st today, this is still a brutal draw for Kenin, who raised the trophy in Melbourne just two years ago.

Keys enters this highly-anticipated clash having just won a title in Adelaide on Friday. The powerful 26-year-old beat Alison Riske, 6-1, 6-2, in the final of that event, capping off a week in which she also defeated Elina Svitolina, Tereza Martincova, Ludmilla Samsonova and Coco Gauff. All in all, the American made an emphatic statement that she ready to compete for big prizes, and win at big events, once again.

Kenin doesn’t come into this contest with the same kind of momentum. The 23-year-old has reached just one quarterfinal in the last nine events she’s played, and her 2021 season was a major letdown after the way she burst onto the scene in 2020. That may have been a result of some personal upheaval—she actually fired her father as her coach in May, struggled with a new team, and then brought her dad back on in November. It’s entirely fair to question just which version of Kenin we’ll get in Melbourne, but we do know that Daria Kasatkina wiped the floor with her at Sydney International on January 10. That was a 6-4, 6-0 win for the Russian, who needed just over an hour to earn the victory.

In addition to the opposing directions these two are heading in, Keys also has the type of game style to really give Kenin some trouble. Kenin is normally capable of holding her own no matter who is on the other side of the net, but Keys can hit the cover off the ball, and was doing so with a renewed precision in Adelaide. She also landed at least 65 percent of her first serves in play in three of the five matches she played, starting the point in her favor often. Keys’ serve had eluded her during a disastrous two-year run in 2020 and 2021, but she appears to have regained her form. When Keys is on her game, not many players in the world can match her power.

Not only is Keys looking lethal at the moment, but she also happens to own a 2-1 advantage in her head-to-head against Kenin. Both wins came on hard courts, and both were in straight sets: in Cincinnati and in Rome, in 2019.

So even though they haven’t played in years, it’s hard to see Kenin finding a way to beat Keys. There’s good value on her at the moneyline, -205. But if you’re not willing to play her at those types of odds, Keys -2.5 on the game spread is also an enticing play (-150). All Keys would need is one lopsided set in order to be in great shape to cover.

And for what it’s worth, she would have covered the 2.5 games in each of her previous two wins.

The Pick: Keys -2.5 Games (-150)