In an first-round French Open match that might not be on the radar of too many fans, world No. 334 Taylor Townsend will take on world No. 73 Caroline Garcia. But it's actually the American who is favored rather significantly—which makes this look like something of a trap from the oddsmakers. However, avoid considering their rankings, and doing so will allow you to see that Townsend is rightfully favored.
Townsend is a healthy 9-2 in clay-court matches in 2022, and she was given a wild-card into Roland Garros. Those 11 matches are 11 more than Garcia has played on the dirt in 2022; the Frenchwoman hasn’t played on clay since July 2021. It should be noted that all of Townsend’s matches were in low-level tournaments, but it’s still better than nothing. The American’s conditioning appears to be solid right now, and she has been battle-tested on clay. With that, she’ll be rather comfortable with all of the bounces she’ll experience in this match, whereas Garcia is going to be really rusty.