On Thursday, world No. 7 Paula Badosa will face world No. 24 Veronika Kudermetova in the quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. Badosa is the defending champion of this event, but she has her work cut out for her against Kudermetova, who is fresh off a remarkable 7-6 (5), 6-7 (5), 7-5 win over Marketa Vondrousova. More to the point, Kuderetova is 3-0 against Badosa, and has dropped just one set of the seven they've contested.
Nevertheless, Badosa is listed as a -220 favorite to win this match. But given their history, it’s hard to imagine this match not at least going the distance—if not an outright Kudermetova win. With that in mind, we’re suggesting a play on Kudermetova to cover the set spread.