The Pick Miami Tiafoe Nakashima R2

World No. 31 Frances Tiafoe takes on world No. 80 Brandon Nakashima in an all-American battle at the Miami Open on Friday. While Nakashima was able to get used to the South Beach conditions in his 6-1, 7-5 win over Soonwoo Kwon last round, the 28th-seeded Tiafoe had a first-round bye.

Having the ability to play a match and get comfortable in Miami will surely be an advantage for Nakashima, but will it be enough to help erase what Tiafoe has done to him in the past? These two have met twice at the ATP level, with Big Foe having won both of those matches—in addition to winning their only Challenger-level battle. These two met just two weeks ago when Tiafoe earned a 6-4, 6-4 victory at Indian Wells.

Considering Tiafoe is the higher-ranked player and undefeated against his countryman, the -115 pick'em appears to be a trap line set by the oddsmakers. On paper, they would have had every reason to make Tiafoe a favorite in this match, but they instead went the route of begging bettors to take the 24-year-old. We’re not going to fall for that here.

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Look to see if Nakashima can get a rhythm going on his first serve.

Look to see if Nakashima can get a rhythm going on his first serve.

The conditions are central to why we're backing Brandon. The wind in Indian Wells and Miami might be somewhat similar, but it’s huge that Nakashima has already had a chance to experience the South Florida humidity. He's also had the chance to make adjustments to the different style of hard courts, which are a little faster in Miami.

The ball flies through the air extremely quickly in the desert, which might have had something to do with Nakashima only making 47% of his first serves against Tiafoe at Indian Wells. Nakashima bounced back from that poor serving performance by recording 11 aces and zero double faults and landing 63% of his first serves against Kwon. That’s a really promising sign for a player that can be quite dangerous with the ball on his racquet.

As long as his serve is back in a good place, Nakashima has to like his chances of flipping the script. Tiafoe is also coming off of an elbow injury that sidelined him from the Australian Open to Indian Wells. With that, it’s fair to wonder whether or not he was getting by on adrenaline in his return to action at the BNP Paribas Open.

These conditions can definitely test a player’s mental toughness, but the poised Nakashima shouldn’t be bothered by them too much. He also played the event in Delray Beach back in February, so has recent experience in these swamp-like conditions to draw from. You can’t say the same for Tiafoe, who was out with an injury in that time. The Pick: Nakashima To Win (-115)

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