The Rally: Rybakina vs. Sabalenka is a compelling battle for No. 1 in Australia, and No. 2 on the tour totem pole

HIGHLIGHTS: Elena Rybakina's win over two-time Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka

Hi Steve,

Elena Rybakina versus Aryna Sabalenka in the Australian Open final offers both contrast and similarity.

Reigning Wimbledon champion Rybakina is now in her second Grand Slam singles final—and the first where she’ll earn ranking points. Sabalenka was 0-3 in Slam semis prior to her 7-6 (1), 6-2 win over Magda Linette.

Rybakina in the semis overcame the sentimental favorite, 33-year-old Victoria Azarenka, 7-6 (4), 6-3. Power and precision were two of the three Rybakina assets that broke open this match. The third was what may be her true superpower: poise.

I’m not sure what’s more unsettling, the pace and accuracy of Rybakina’s shots, or her Zen-like detachment from the stress of competition. Rybakina’s tranquility under pressure reminds me of what many of Pete Sampras’ rivals said about playing him. There they were, trying to grub and grind their way through matches—and there was Sampras, swinging freely, without an apparent care in the world.

In contrast to Rybakina’s cucumber-like cool, there’s Sabalenka, the classic example of a player who isn’t afraid to express her emotions. But the truth is that Sabalenka does this with far less frequency and volume than she did earlier in her career. It’s also clear that Sabalenka has put in lots of time developing her skills. Besides working extensively to improve a serve that was in tatters a year ago, her experience playing doubles has added variety to her game: the occasional slice backhand, feathered drop shot, or firmly placed volley. That said, powerful serves and concussive, deep drives remain the Sabalenka cornerstones.

I’m not sure what to make of this matchup. At heart, each is a power baseliner. But the emotional subtext is quite different. No doubt relieved to have finally reached a major singles final, Sabalenka has been a Top 10 player far longer than Rybakina, and beaten her all three times they’ve played. They’ve each been three-setters, the most recent coming at Wimbledon two years ago.

So in theory, Sabalenka is the favorite. But Rybakina is the one who made her way through Wimbledon with hardly a blink.

Steve, what intrigues you about this final? And what do you see as the keys for each player?

Hi Joel,

I’ll start by saying that this is a satisfying final. I admit that, over the last two weeks, I’ve missed having women with the multiple-Slam-winning pedigrees of Ash Barty and Naomi Osaka in the field. It takes time for a player to build a reputation as must-see TV, to become someone who fans are emotionally invested in. Just when they had accomplished that, they pulled back—one permanently, one temporarily. Iga Swiatek has filled the gap nicely for a year, but when she went out in the fourth round, I wondered what kind of final we might be in store for, and how recognizable the names might be.

Maybe I shouldn’t have wondered or worried, because Sabalenka and Rybakina are both worthy contestants, and neither succumbed to the pressure that comes with having such a golden opportunity at a major. Rybakina is a Wimbledon champion, and Sabalenka is probably “the best player who hasn’t won a major” on the women’s side. After her strong close to 2022, and her quick start in 2023, a lot of us picked her to win this title at the start of the tournament.

As you said, the match will offer a contrast in personalities, if not in playing styles. Between them, Rybakina and Sabalenka embody the full range of tennis-player demeanors, but I like them both. I like how simple and straightforward Rybakina keeps everything. We tell athletes “not to get too high or two low”—Rybakina is the living, breathing, expression-free example of that maxim. At the same time, I enjoy the panoply of Sabalenka emotions and facial expressions. Though, as you say, she has narrowed her range of emotions of late, which is probably one reason she’s in this final.

I think Sabalenka is a slight favorite, but part of me wonders if we could see a repeat of last year’s Wimbledon final. That day it was Ons Jabeur who was the favorite over Rybakina, but it was Rybakina who kept her head down, kept firing her serve, and let Jabeur gradually get tighter over the course of three sets. We’ll see if Sabalenka is still prone to those types of finish-line nerves.

To zoom out a little, Joel, what are your thoughts on the WTA’s state of play starting off 2023? I alluded to the absence of a couple of recent big stars above. I think in a lot of people’s minds, the next step forward is for a rival to emerge for Swiatek. A win here for Sabalenka would take her a step closer.

Steve,

This has the potential to be an exciting year for the WTA—an engaging 50th anniversary, marked by celebrations of past notables and a great many young players seeking to stand out.

Even in the wake of losing to Rybakina in Melbourne, Swiatek remains the clear No. 1 on the WTA computer. But it really is a shame how the lack of ranking points at Wimbledon altered the picture for so many, and how it hurt Rybakina most of all. Should Rybakina win Australia, she and Swiatek would each hold two Grand Slam titles. Hopefully, having now split two matches, Swiatek vs. Rybakina will blossom into a compelling rivalry.

That said, I hardly see those two dominating the tour à la Evert-Navratilova. Many more players should be in the thick of things all year long. Sabalenka will certainly go deep frequently. As this year’s Australian Open proved, Azarenka has all it takes to contend.

As a California disruptor, raised to play on fast hard courts, my personal favorites are versatile stylists Jabeur and Daria Kasatkina, as well as early ball-strikers Caroline Garcia and Belinda Bencic. Word has it that the ball used during this year’s Australian Open favored flat, hard hitters; perhaps that’s one reason these four didn’t do as well as expected Down Under. But not entirely. No matter what ball is being used, forceful players such as Sabalenka, Rybakina, Azarenka and Swiatek at simply bring much more power, accuracy and court coverage to be thrown off by anyone.

Americans Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff will continue to generate strong results, each aided most of all by a strong work ethic and sheer love of the game. How great that these two play doubles; it’s quite apparent how much that helps their singles. Ditto, of course, for another eclectic player I hope wins more matches this year, Barbora Krejcikova.

Also in the mix are some players with exceptional firepower: Paula Badosa, Danielle Collins, Madison Keys, Jelena Ostapenko. These four are streaky, but when they’re on, highly imposing.

February will be a fascinating month for the WTA. While after the Australian Open, many ATP players reduce their competitive commitments for much of that month, it’s typically full speed ahead for the WTA—this year likely even more so, including new events in Abu Dhabi and Austin.

Steve, who are some of the WTA players you most enjoy watching?

Joel,

Interesting that you see Rybakina as a potential rival for Swiatek in the near future. When she’s good, and her serve is getting her out of jams, and her backhand is rifling through the court, she’s Top 5. So far, of course, she hasn’t always been that good. Sometimes I think she’s too even-keel and low-key, and doesn’t get especially fired up for any particular event. Obviously, though, she has made that approach work for her at the Slams. If she wins a second one this weekend, there won’t be any way to deny her elite status. Any player who can basically ignore her surroundings and forget the stage she’s on and just play tennis is someone to be reckoned with; that seems to be half the battle in the latter stages of the majors.

Maybe that’s what this final will be: a fight for the second spot on the 2023 WTA totem pole. That said, I wonder if a rivalry is really something we need to worry about or expect. I love them as much as the next fan, but they also don’t happen automatically, or typically last for long. A few years ago, many of us hoped Simona Halep vs. Sloane Stephens could become a tour-defining rivalry; they did play a couple of excellent matches, but both dropped from the top of the rankings soon after. Something similar happened with Barty, Osaka and Bianca Andreescu. In short, you take any rivalry you can get, but you can’t be disappointed if they don’t materialize.

The next question for me regarding 2023 is whether it will be a year where Swiatek extends her dominance, à la Serena, or whether she drifts back to the pack, à la Halep and Osaka and Angelique Kerber and Azarenka and other No. 1 players of recent vintage. We’re coming into the part of the year where she began to dominate last season. Will that give her a confidence boost, or will the pressure of measuring up to 37 straight wins, and all the ranking points that came with them, take its toll?

I think ultimately what you want, as a tour, is a regular cast of characters who show up in the latter stages of events and vie for every Slam title. With Rybakina and Sabalenka, we have two of them.