The Roland Garros men’s event just got refreshingly messy

In the last 36 hours, the Roland Garros men’s event has gone from a foregone conclusion to a mad scramble.

As recently as Wednesday, top seeded Jannik Sinner, he of the 31-match win streak, appeared to be heading for a coronation, and a career Grand Slam. Now, for the first time in the Open era, there will be nobody in the round of 16 who has won a major title. Even the man with 24 of them, Novak Djokovic, couldn’t survive the wave of upsets and upstarts that has left a vast stretch of the draw seed-free.

We all love a high-stakes final between No. 1 and 2, but this to me feels refreshingly messy and potentially riveting. Between them, Sinner, Djokovic, and Carlos Alcaraz had won the last 15 majors. With all of them gone, virtually everyone left in the draw will have a legitimate chance to win their first Slam. They’ll also have to deal with that fact.

Gilles Simon, who knows something about being locked out of major contention by a ruling elite, described the new dynamic on Twitter:

“I’ve never seen anything like it in 20 years,” Simon wrote. “It’s going to be so fascinating to see who gets all tense and, on the contrary, who will be ready to seize their chance because there’s a huge mindset shift to be done here.”

So what can we expect from the first no-Sincaraz, no-Djokovic second week at a major this decade? Here are five things to watch for.

Early evidence suggests that competitive flames will rise

On Thursday, Sinner’s loss gave the rest of the field an unexpected jolt of hope. The next day, that field gave us two instant-classic third-round dogfights.

Joao Fonseca came back from two sets down to stun Djokovic 7-5 in the fifth, in 4 hours, 53 minutes. It was just the second time that Djokovic has lost from two sets up—he’s now 209-2.

Later, Casper Ruud followed suit when he came back from two sets down, and saved two match points, to beat Tommy Paul, also 7-5 in the fifth, in 4 hours, 43 minutes.

Would Fonseca and Ruud have fought so hard if Sinner were still in the draw? Probably. But now they had just a little more motivation, a little more tangible hope, while Djokovic and Paul also had more motivation to fight back.

I thought the level of play, and effort, went up noticeably in the Ruud-Paul match after the news got out that Djokovic had lost.

Not everything will be an epic, of course, but every shot, game, set, and match—and match point saved—will mean just a bit more.

Early evidence also suggests that the new favorites will get tight

Alexander Zverev may have been the name that popped into most fans’ minds when Sinner and Djokovic lost. For good reason. The German is the No. 2 seed, he has never won a major, and he has lost three Slam finals, including a five-setter to Alcaraz here two years ago.

After years of banging on the door, it just opened wide for him. Here is his chance to win one—or fail in the most crushing way yet.

But no pressure.

Was it any surprise that, after Djokovic lost on Friday, Zverev dropped his first set of the tournament, threw in a few too many bailout drop shots, looked up nervously at his dad-coach a few too many times, and stumbled at the finish line in the third set?

Credit Zverev for overcoming all of that and winning in four. But the expectations won’t get any lighter on his shoulders.

The bottom half should be a war

While Zverev is technically the favorite to come out of the lower half because of his seeding, there are four other guys who stand out as obstacles for him.

Rafael Jodar: The 19-year-old has big guns from the ground, and, just as important, he showed a lot of grit in coming back from two sets to one down on Friday.

Joao Fonseca: Jodar’s fellow teen hits every bit as huge, and is coming off the win of a lifetime. How much will he have left after two straight five-setters?

Casper Ruud: Fonseca’s Sunday opponent has also played two five-setters to get here. Like Zverev, he has reached three major finals, including two at RG, and lost all three. I was impressed by his clutch play against Paul, after he likely knew that Djokovic was out.

Andrey Rublev: The Russian likes clay, has been to the quarters here twice, and hasn’t had to go five yet. He could catch an exhausted Ruud or Fonseca in the quarters.

The top half will be the land of the unknown

Sinner had a good draw, with his toughest competition—Djokovic, Zverev, Ruud, Jodar—gathered in the other half. In his absence, the top half will become a true wild west. Nine other seeds in this half also fell in the first two rounds. Frances Tiafoe is the only one left in the top quarter.

Of the 16 players alive here, I’d say these have the best chances to make it to the final Sunday:

Felix Auger Aliassime: He’s the highest seed left, and he’s been to semis at Slams in the past. He has also played nine sets in two matches, which could catch up to him.

Flavio Cobolli and Learner Tien: This third-rounder, which is up first in Chatrier on Saturday, now takes on new importance. Cobolli is seeded 10th, Tien 18th, and they’ve looked pretty strong in the heat. Tien leads their H2H 1-0.

Moïse Kouame: How far can the 17-year-old’s home crowd take him? And what does he have left after five long sets in his last match? It should be a thrill to find out.

Raphael Collignon: The 24-year-old Belgian is ranked just 62nd, but he looked impressively strong, physically and mentally, in his straight-set win over Ben Shelton.

Francisco Cerundolo: His brother, Juan Manuel, is the Sinner killer, but Francisco may be the best pure clay-courter in this half. He also has a tendency toward late-match nerves, and has never made a Slam quarterfinal

Others who catch the eye: Rookie Martin Landaluce, and veterans Matteo Berrettini and Tiafoe. They’re all in the nearly-seedless top quarter.

Who’s going to win?

Semifinals: Kouame d. Collignon; Ruud d. Zverev

Final: Ruud d. Kouame