Three to See: An early test for Alcaraz; Azarenka and Keys meet again; Medvedev on upset alert?

HIGHLIGHTS: Alcaraz's final-round win in Madrid

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Albert Ramos-Viñolas

The 20-year-old Alcaraz has visited and conquered much of the tennis world, but this will be his first match at the Foro Italico. Last year, after winning Madrid, he pulled out rather than having to turn around and play three days later. This time, with the new, expanded clay-Masters format, he will have had nearly a week to recover. (The women’s Madrid champion, Aryna Sabalenka, who lost on Thursday, probably could have used that extra break herself.)

But if Alcaraz is pleased with the downtime, he might be a little worried about who he has to face, second up on Court Centrale. He's 3-0 against his countryman Ramos-Viñolas, but two of those victories have come by razor-thin margins. Their most recent meeting was a five-set epic at Roland Garros last year. Ramos-Viñolas was the better player for much of that day, and had a match point in the fourth set. But Alcaraz survived.

Could we be in for something similarly entertaining in Rome? It seems unlikely. ARV is 35 years old and ranked 72nd, and Alcaraz will be ready for him—and ready to show the drop-shot-loving tennis fans of Rome what he can do. Winner: Alcaraz

Victoria Azarenka vs. Madison Keys

Until this February, Azarenka owned Keys. She had beaten her four straight times, including once in late 2022 in Guadalajara, 6-1 in the third set, and again at the Australian Open in 2023, also 6-1 in the third set. But a few weeks later, Maddy finally broke Vika’s spell in Dubai, in convincing 6-2, 6-1 fashion.

Azarenka and Keys have each reached a final in Rome, and they each lost to Serena Williams when they got there. Right now, Azarenka is ranked six spots higher—17 to 23—and has had the better 2023. Vika is also a little steadier from one set to the next than Keys, and she may still be riding her resentment over the Madrid doubles debacle, and the support she received for speaking up about it. Winner: Azarenka

Daniil Medvedev vs. Emil Ruusuvuori

There are a couple of factors here that would seem to indicate a routine win for Medvedev. The first is that he’s ranked No. 3 in the world, and Ruusuvuori is No. 43. The second is that Medvedev won their only previous meeting, last fall on hard courts in Astana, in straightforward 6-3, 6-2 fashion.

But there are also a couple of factors that indicate this could be competitive. Medvedev is still lukewarm, at best, about clay and his chances of success on it. Last week he had a typically agitated experience during his defeat at the hands of Aslan Karatsev in Madrid. At the same event, Ruusuvuori played two superb sets of tennis to nearly knock off home favorite Alcaraz.

The 24-year-old Finn will notch an important win sooner or later; Medvedev’s vulnerability on this surface should give him a chance of doing it on Saturday. Winner: Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev vs. Emil Ruusuvuori

There are a couple of factors here that would seem to indicate a routine win for Medvedev. The first is that he’s ranked No. 3 in the world, and Ruusuvuori is No. 43. The second is that Medvedev won their only previous meeting, last fall on hard courts in Astana, in straightforward 6-3, 6-2 fashion.

But there are also a couple of factors that indicate this could be competitive. Medvedev is still lukewarm, at best, about clay and his chances of success on it. Last week he had a typically agitated experience during his defeat at the hands of Aslan Karatsev in Madrid. At the same event, Ruusuvuori played two superb sets of tennis to nearly knock off home favorite Alcaraz.

The 24-year-old Finn will notch an important win sooner or later; Medvedev’s vulnerability on this surface should give him a chance of doing it on Saturday. Winner: Medvedev