Three to See, Indian Wells Day 3: Rublev v. Lehecka; Medvedev v. Nakashima; Pegula v. Giorgi

Interview at Indian Wells: Ben Shelton, after his first-round victory

Andrey Rublev vs. Jiri Lehecka

One of these men is ranked seventh, and the other is ranked 47th, but they may be on their way to starting an interesting rivalry this season. Rublev and Lehecka have split their previous two meetings, each of which went three sets. Both men reached the quarterfinals at the Australian Open this year. And when they played in Doha last month, it was the 47th-ranked Lehecka who out-dueled the seventh-ranked Rublev, coming back from a set down to win in three.

Each is a polished power-baseliner with a two-handed backhand, and, judging by their fast starts to 2023, each is destined for better things this season. In Lehecka’s case, it seems like only a matter of time before he joins Rublev in the Top 20, or Top 15. We’ll see which of them keeps up his winning form in this early-evening contest on compact Court 3. Get there early. Winner: Rublev

Daniil Medvedev vs. Brandon Nakashima

What a difference a couple of months can make. When 2023 began, Nakashima, who closed the previous season with an impressive title run at the Next Gen Finals, looked like a sure bet to make a big push up the rankings. Medvedev, meanwhile, ended 2022 with an 0-3 performance at the ATP Finals; at 27, he was starting to look like a man whose time at the very top might already be behind him. Fast forward to today and their status has been reversed. Coming into Indian Wells, Nakashima was just 1-3 on the year, while Medvedev has won 14 straight matches and three straight tournaments, and is probably most people’s favorite to win this event as well, despite the presence of top seed Carlos Alcaraz.

How will the Russian and the American play against each other in their first meeting? Both guys have excellent backhands and high shot tolerances, so the rallies should be long and cagey. But Medvedev has the better serve, the better forehand, and as much belief in himself as he’s had in 12 months. Winner: Medvedev

Jessica Pegula vs. Camila Giorgi

Pegula is 6-2 against Giorgi, and ranked 43 spots higher. But both of those numbers are a little deceptive. The American’s last two wins over the Italian, both of which came in 2022, were tight contests that ended 7-5 in the third set. And while Giorgi is just 46th in the world right now, she wasn’t playing like it two weeks ago, when she won the title in Merida, Mexico.

Giorgi is the bigger, wilder hitter, and this prime-time evening match in the stadium court will likely be on her racquet. Which means that Pegula will need to be patient, go for depth and placement, wait for mistakes, and redirect Giorgi’s power when it comes at her. In other words, Pegula will need to do what she does just about every time she steps on court. Winner: Pegula