Toronto Betting Preview: Arthur Fils vs. Pablo Carreno Busta

Plus: How you should value Denis Shapovalov at the National Bank Open.

Published Jul 29, 2025

How you should value Denis Shapovalov in Toronto | Game, Set, Bet presented by BetMGM

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Due to a stress fracture in his back, we haven’t seen Arthur Fils since his hard-fought five-set win over Jaume Munar at Roland Garros. The injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Frenchman, as he had been playing some of the best tennis of his career.

It’s not exactly clear what he’ll look like when he takes the court at the National Bank Open. It’s never easy coming back from an injury, and it’s also difficult for bettors to back rusty players. But that’s precisely what I’m looking to do in Toronto, as I’ll take whatever we can get from Fils over this version of Pablo Carreno Busta.

Carreno Busta was able to win as an underdog on Monday, but that was against a Challenger-level opponent in Liam Draxl. Granted, the Canadian is 39-13 in Challengers this year and does possess tour-level talent, but he has never won an ATP-level match before. Carreno Busta had also been playing some shaky tennis heading into that match, with a straight-set loss to Gauthier Onclin in a Lyon Challenger being especially worrisome. For his part, Carreno Busta has done some damage in Challengers this year, but not much of it lately. He’s also just 4-9 at the tour level, and his break percentage is only 15.2%.

Arthur Fils will play for the first time since Roland Garros on Tuesday.

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Carreno Busta’s poor returning is part of the reason I like Fils here. The Frenchman will probably have some moments in which he’ll look less than 100% in this match, but the serve is something that should be there rather quickly. And if Fils makes a decent number of first serves in this match, he should be able to win it in lopsided fashion.

Fils just has an advantage pretty much everywhere. His serve is much bigger, he’s a better athlete, and I think he has the edge from both wings. Fils has also improved greatly as a returner, as his break percentage is up at 23.6%. That was once a hole in his game, but he should be the best returner on the court in this one.

Fils also happened to beat Carreno Busta 7-6 (6), 6-3 in Barcelona back in April, and that was a home match for the Spaniard. In quicker conditions, in a neutral setting, another win like that can be expected. That’s why I’m laying 3.5 games with the 21-year-old.

Pick: Fils -3.5 Games (-123)

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