Has Iga Swiatek become the favorite? | Three takeaways from 2025 US Open women's draw

Aryna Sabalenka is the defending champion and has been No. 1 all season. But has Iga Swiatek, with her wins at Wimbledon and Cincinnati, and her rise back to No. 2, made herself the favorite at the year’s last major?

Three takeaways from the US Open women’s draw.

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👉 Click here to view the full 2025 US Open women's singles draw

Could Sabalenka and Swiatek's first major final happen in New York?

They’re the solid favorites. But If I had a choice of roads to the title match, I’d take Iga’s over Aryna’s.

Sabalenka’s quarter may not be a Group of Death, exactly, but it has more than the usual share of dangers. Leylah Fernandez, who beat Sabalenka here in 2021, is her potential third-round opponent. Clara Tauson or Elise Mertens, both quality players, could be her fourth-round foe. And in the quarters she could face either Jasmine Paolini, who made the final in Cincinnati, or Elena Rybakina, who beat Sabalenka on hard courts at the same event.

Swiatek, meanwhile, probably likes what she sees in her section. Amanda Anisimova is the second-highest seed; we saw what happened when they played at Wimbledon. After that are Elina Svitolina and Ekaterina Alexandrova; Swiatek is 8-3 against them combined. The first seed Swiatek could face is Anna Kalinskaya; Iga just beat her in straights in Cincy.

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As far as their potential semifinal opponents go, Swiatek could play Coco Gauff or Madison Keys, while Sabalenka is projected to face either Jessica Pegula or Mirra Andreeva. None of those four are on fire at the moment.

Are any other top players in Slam-winning form right now?

In the paragraph above, I mentioned a few Top 10 players who would normally be considered contenders, but who aren’t coming in with much momentum:

Gauff, champion two years ago, just fired her coach and hired a serve-technique expert to help stop her from double-faulting.

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Andreeva twisted her ankle in Montreal and pulled out of Cincy.

Pegula, runner-up here last year, is 2-4 since winning the title in Bad Homburg in June; that includes a first-round loss at Wimbledon.

Keys made the quarters in Montreal and the fourth round in Cincy, but hasn’t won a title since the Australian Open.

That said, Pegula, Keys, and Gauff all have a history of raising their games in New York. As high seeds, they should have a chance to work their way into the draw, and improve as the rounds go by. I like the fact that Gauff didn’t waste any more time before pulling the trigger and changing coaches. It’s obviously not an ideal moment to alter your service motion, but better to rip the band-aid off ASAP.

Who else could be a dark horse?

Clara Tauson has had a solid season, and has a win over Sabalenka; they might play in the fourth round.

Rybakina has her long-time coach, Stefano Vukov, back. She showed promising signs in Cincinnati, and we know she has Slam-winning potential.

Paolini, a two-time major finalist, had her A-game back last week.

Victoria Mboko may not be ready to win the Open, but you can’t underestimate her after Montreal. She’s near Emma Navarro, who has had a subpar season, and Andreeva, who has been hurt.

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Naomi Osaka is finally seeded after her trip to the Montreal final; she could be heading for a fourth-round collision with Keys or Karolina Muchova.

Amanda Anisimova, Wimbledon finalist, has a good draw—until the quarters, where she might face Swiatek.

What are the early-round matches to watch?

• Clara Tauson vs. Alexandra Eala — The 22-year-old Dane and the 20-year-old Filipina have never played.
• Coco Gauff vs. Alja Tomljanovic — The Australian made the quarters here in 2022
• Victoria Mboko vs. Barbora Krejcikova
• Karolina Muchova vs. Venus Williams
• Donna Vekic vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
• Dayana Yastremska vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
• McCartney Kessler vs. Magda Linette
• Jasmine Paolini vs. Iva Jovic — Possible second round
• Veronika Kudermetova vs. Emma Raducanu — Possible second round

Saying farewell: Petra Kvitova and Caroline Garcia

Blast from the recent past: Lois Boisson. The Roland Garros semifinalist is in Anisimova’s section.