US Open Women's Preview: What happens when two dozen players have an equal chance to win?

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At Roland Garros, Iga Swiatek was a heavy favorite to win. At Wimbledon, she was a slight favorite. Now, after a couple early and unpromising defeats in Toronto and Cincinnati, what should we call the WTA’s No. 1 player coming into the US Open? She’s just a contender like everyone else, in a field where two dozen players have roughly the same chance of winning.

Does that include Serena Williams, who is likely playing her final tournament? Probably not—the 23-time Slam champ has lost five of her last six matches. But she’ll be the talk of the town for as long as she’s in the event.

Picking a winner from this well-matched field is exceedingly difficult, but let’s try it anyway.

First Quarter

Swiatek has started something of a firestorm with her comments about the balls that the women use in New York. Specifically, they’re lighter, harder to control, and difficult to find in Europe. Swiatek couldn’t get used to them in her last two tournaments. Will she fare any better at the Open? She starts against a speedy opponent, Jasmine Paolini; could play home favorite Sloane Stephens in the second round; and has a bunch of fellow big-hitters—Amanda Anisimova, Qinwen Zheng, Jelena Ostapenko, Garbiñe Muguruza, Petra Kvitova—with her in this section. We’ll see whether Swiatek can rediscover the magic from early in the season, but it seems like a long shot right now.

Player of Interest: Jessica Pegula. The No. 8 seed has reached the quarterfinals in Melbourne and Paris. Is this the year when she does the same in her home state? The first seed she could face is Elise Mertens in the third round.

First-round matches to watch:

• Swiatek vs. Paolini
• Anisimova vs. Yulia Putintseva
• Zheng vs. Ostapenko
• Muguruza vs. Clara Tauson
• Sofia Kenin vs. Julie Niemeier
• Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. University of Texas standout Peyton Stearns

Semifinalist: Zheng

Second Quarter

There’s a lot of game in this quarter, but not a whole lot of consistency.

Paula Badosa and Aryna Sabalenka, the two highest seeds, are prime examples of both phenomena. Each has grade-A weaponry, but neither has made it past the fourth round at a major this year. Sabalenka did, however, look a little like her 2021 self in reaching the semifinals in Cincinnati.

If they falter, who might take advantage? Elena Rybakina, Emma Raducanu and Danielle Collins have all shown themselves capable of going the distance at a Slam within the last 12 months, but they’ve been up and down elsewhere as well. The same goes for Collins’ first-round opponent, Naomi Osaka. That leaves two talented players who have gone deep in New York before: Karolina Pliskova, a finalist in 2016, and Belinda Bencic, a semifinalist in 2019.

First-round matches to watch:

• Collins vs. Osaka
• Raducanu vs. Alizé Cornet
• Venus Williams vs. Alison van Uytvanck

Semifinalist: Bencic

Third Quarter

When so many in the field have a chance at the title, does it make sense to pick the most in-form player of the moment? That would be Caroline Garcia, who has won three tournaments on three surfaces in the last three months, including the Western & Southern Open last week. She has done it by playing an exciting brand of net-rushing tennis. Can she keep that going in New York? Her own history says no: Since she made her major-tournament debut in 2011, Garcia reached a total of one quarterfinal, and has never made it past the third round at the Open.

There are also a few players here with better records at majors. Simona Halep has won two of them; perhaps more important, she also won the title in Toronto earlier this month. Madison Keys and Coco Gauff have reached Slam finals, and played well at various points this summer; they could meet in the third round.

Player of Interest: Beatriz Haddad Maia. At 26, the Brazilian has had a breakout season; she could face Garcia in the third round.

First-round matches to watch:

• Maria Sakkari vs. Tatjana Maria. Maria won their third-round match at Wimbledon.
• Bianca Andreescu vs. Harmony Tan

Semifinalist: Garcia

Fourth Quarter

This quarter might be the toughest-to-predict of all. Anett Kontaveit is the highest seed, but she hasn’t been much of a factor since the spring, and only won one match combined in Toronto and Cincinnati. The second-highest seed is Ons Jabeur, who seems to be suffering from an understandable post-Wimbledon hangover, after her surprise final-round loss there.

Between them are a number of intriguing names—Daria Kasatkina, Leylah Fernandez, Shelby Rogers, Veronika Kudermetova, Barbora Krejcikova, Ajla Tomljanovic—but no one who stands out as a sleeper for the title.

There is a name that does stand out here, of course: Serena Williams. She plays 80th-ranked Danka Kovinic in the first round, and would probably play Kontaveit after that. Serena hasn’t given us many reasons to believe she can survive until the third round, but she’s surprised us on these courts more a few times before.

First-round matches to watch:

• S. Williams vs. Kovinic
• Tomljanovic vs. Karolina Muchova

Semifinalist: Jabeur

Semifinals: Zheng d. Bencic; Garcia d. Jabeur

Final: Garcia d. Zheng