"What just happened?" Alexei Popyrin joins Jessica Pegula in making pre-US Open statement

“What just happened?” That’s what a baffled and elated Alexei Popyrin scrawled on a sideline camera lens after beating Andrey Rublev to clinch his first Masters 1000 title in Montreal on Monday night. The question was tongue in cheek, but it made sense, too. In seven years on tour, the 62nd-ranked Popyrin had never threatened to win anything close to a title this significant.

But taken a slightly different way, Popyrin’s question could have been asked of both tournaments in Canada this week, the women’s event in Toronto, and the men’s in Montreal. Each suffered from a depleted post-Olympics draw. Each was cut a day short by the Games. Each was constantly brought to a halt by mind-numbing amounts of rain. And each ended up with one unseeded finalist who barged in from out of nowhere.

So instead of “What just happened?” we may want to ask, “What, if anything, does Canada mean this year?” Were these tournaments one-offs, with little significance for the near future, when top players like Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, and Iga Swiatek return? Or were the successes of Popyrin in Montreal, and the two finalists in Toronto, Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova, a sign of more to come from them?

It means the world, for all the hard work I’ve put in over the years, all the sacrifices I’ve made. —Alexei Popyrin

With Pegula, the first question to ask may be whether she can play as well at home in the States as she does in Canada. With her 6-3, 2-6, 6-1 win over Anisimova on Monday, the 30-year-old American defended the title she won in Montreal last year, and improved her career record at the event to 17-2.

After her victory here in 2023, Pegula briefly looked like a stealth contender for the US Open, but she flamed out early in Cincinnati and New York. This time around, she didn’t beat anyone of note—she faced just one seed, No. 14 Diana Shnaider. But whatever the quality of her opponents, Pegula finished on a high note, quality-wise, on Monday.

She covered the corners on defense, and rushed Anisimova with her counter-punching. She returned with depth and pace. She won 16 of 17 points on her serve in the first set, and won 16 of the first 18 points in the deciding third. She finished with a flourish, too, firing off a few well-angled forehand winners in the closing stretch. Even when she was losing six straight games in the second set, there was no sign of the negativity that can drag her down on bad days.

“I just need to pick up my energy here,” Pegula said of how she turned the match back around. “I need to come and start off the third and get on her really quickly. Especially someone that can have such big ball-striking ability and hit winners and kind of boss you around the court.”

To see Anisimova bossing her opponents around, the way she did when she was reaching a Roland Garros semifinal at 17, was an exciting development for U.S. tennis. She beat four Top 10 seeds in Toronto, including Aryna Sabalenka, and moved back into the Top 50 after starting the year outside the Top 300. While she didn’t win in Monday, she did bounce back from an anxious and erratic opening set. Anisimova is still just 22, and still drives the ball with as much casual power as anyone in the game.

“I put the work in, I kept my head down, and I tried to come back to the sport with more of a relaxed feeling," Anisimova said. “Trying to enjoy each day as it comes…I think with that kind of approach to my everyday life, I think that’s helped me a lot.”

After Anisimova came up a match short in Toronto, her fellow surprise, seed-killing finalist, Popyrin, finished the job in Montreal. His 6-2, 6-4 win over Rublev was his fourth over a seeded opponent this week, along with Ben Shelton, Girgor Dimitrov, and Hubert Hurkacz. On Sunday, Popyrin spent more than four hours winning his quarterfinal and semifinal; it hardly seemed likely that he would have the energy, or the will, or the calm, to win again, in the biggest match of his career, 24 hours later. But he was in control against Rublev from start to finish.

At 6’5, with a versatile serve and a rally-dominating forehand, Popyrin has long seemed like a guy who was heading for the Top 20. But his road has been bumpy and arduous, with injuries and coaching changes and continued erratic play keeping his ranking down. The results have begun to steady over the past two seasons, and he has been threatening a breakout week. He finally got it here.

Popyrin’s game may finally have met its moment. He plays exactly the type of serve-plus-one, hit-as-many-forehands-as-possible style that coaches and analytics gurus encourage today. He showed that he could impose that style on another, higher-ranked hard-hitter in Rublev. Popyrin cracked 31 winners—to 16 for Rublev—and made just 10 errors.

That second stat was especially impressive. Whenever Rublev did hit a forcing shot, Popyrin was admirably patient, choosing to finesse the ball safely back in court rather than pull the trigger in response. He won with spectacular inside-out winners when they were there, but he also won by staying solid when that was the all he could do.

“It means the world, for all the hard work I’ve put in over the years, all the sacrifices I’ve made,” Popyrin said of his breakthrough.

So what did just happen in Canada? Yes, some big names were absent, but Popyrin, Pegula, and Anisimova got out of the blocks first in the race for the year’s last major, and looked convincing doing it. Let’s see where their fast starts take them.